AI threatens one in four jobs – but transformation, not replacement, is the real risk

One in four jobs worldwide is potentially exposed to what’s known as generative artificial intelligence – or Generative AI – according to a new joint study from the UN labour agency (ILO) and Poland’s National Research Institute. The study finds that transforming job descriptions, not widespread job loss, is the more likely result.

Generative AI (GenAI) refers to systems that can create content such as text, images, code or data summaries in response to user prompts. As such tools become more widely used, they are expected to reshape the tasks employees perform each day.

The new ILO-NASK index draws from nearly 30,000 real-world job descriptions using worker surveys, expert reviews and AI models to identify occupations most susceptible to AI driven change.

Few jobs consist of tasks that are fully automatable with current AI technology,” the authors write. “Transformation of jobs is the most likely impact of GenAI.”

A baby has his general health recorded by a data clerk.

GAVI Alliance/Evelyn Hockstein

A baby has his general health recorded by a data clerk.

Women face disproportionate exposure

The study finds that in high-income countries, jobs considered at the highest risk of AI-driven task automation account for 9.6 per cent of female employment – nearly three times the share for men.

Worldwide, 4.7 per cent of women’s jobs fall into the highest-risk category, compared with 2.4 per cent for men.

This disparity is due largely to the overrepresentation of women in clerical and administrative roles, which are among the most exposed occupational groups.

These jobs often involve tasks such as data entry and document formatting and scheduling, functions that AI technologies can already perform efficiently.

While these roles are unlikely to disappear entirely, the report warns that partial automation could reduce job quality, leading to fewer responsibilities, stagnating wages and growing insecurity.

Without targeted training or role redesign, some workers – particularly women – may face limited opportunities to adapt.

A global, unequal picture

The report also identifies stark differences across regions. In high-income countries, 34 per cent of jobs are in occupations exposed to GenAI, compared to just 11 per cent in low-income countries.

Middle-income regions such as Latin America and parts of Asia fall somewhere in between.

Europe and Central Asia show the highest gender disparities, driven by high female employment in clerical roles and widespread digital adoption.

Regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and the Arab States currently show lower overall exposure but could still experience significant disruption if AI technologies spread without safeguards.

The study cautions that lower exposure does not equal lower risk. In regions where digital access is limited or labour protections are weak, even small-scale automation could destabilise vulnerable sectors.

Turning insight into action

To ensure that the transition to generative AI supports rather than displaces workers, ILO urges governments, employers and workers’ organisations to act decisively.

Central to the recommended response is the need to strengthen access to digital skills and training, particularly for women and those working in clerical or administrative roles.

The agency also highlights the importance of integrating AI planning into broader labour market and education policies.

Preparing workforces for transformation will require not only technical training, but also supportive infrastructure, modernised curricula, and alignment between employers’ needs and national policies.

Inclusivity’s a must

At the heart of this transition, authors stress, must be inclusive social dialogue. Workers should have a say in how GenAI is introduced and used in the workplace, and their experiences must inform decisions about implementation.

Without this engagement, the risks of unequal outcomes, including widening gender gaps and declining job quality, will be much greater.

Finally, the report emphasises that regions with limited digital access must not be left behind. Expanding infrastructure and ensuring equitable access to technology are critical steps in enabling all countries to shape the future of work on their own terms.

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Gaza: ‘Worst-case scenario’ unfolds as brutal aid blockade threatens mass starvation

Speaking from Gaza City OCHA spokesperson Olga Cherevko told journalists in Geneva that a friend of hers “saw people burning a few days ago from the explosions – and there was no water to save them.”

Since all entry points into the war-torn enclave were “sealed by the Israeli authorities for the entry of cargo” in March, the “worst-case scenario” was triggered, Ms. Cherevko said: supplies are depleting while the conflict rages on.

Food stocks have now mainly run out, water access has become impossible,” she told journalists in Geneva.

As the veteran aid worker spoke, she noted that a “very violent fight” for access to water was taking place downstairs from her, with people throwing rocks and firing shots at a water truck which was pulling away.

No childhood

The OCHA spokesperson said that every day she was seeing children “who have been deprived of their childhood for many months,” and elderly people “rummaging through piles of trash” in search of food and combustible material for cooking, in the absence of fuel.

During a visit on Thursday to Patient Friends Hospital, a paediatric hospital in Gaza City which had been attacked several times during the war, she heard reports of rising malnutrition rates.

Hospitals report running out of blood units, as mass casualties continue to arrive,” Ms. Cherevko stressed, while precious fuel is being rationed.

Malnutrition cases among children in Gaza are increasing due to a lack of food.

Running on empty

“Gaza is inching closer to running on empty,” she added.

Ms. Cherevko said that UN humanitarians are “in constant contact” with the Israeli authorities and are advocating for border crossings to reopen. “We have mechanisms that mitigate diversion [and] ensure that aid reaches the people it’s intended to reach,” she said.

“We are ready to resume delivery at scale as soon as the crossings reopen, Ms. Cherevko insisted. “We stand by our pledge to remain principled and continue relieving people’s suffering, wherever they may be.”

In an appeal to the Israeli authorities on Thursday, the UN’s top humanitarian official and OCHA chief Tom Fletcher said, “Lift this brutal blockade. Let humanitarians save lives”.

Mr. Fletcher reaffirmed the urgent need for the release of hostages taken by Hamas on 7 October 2023, who “should never have been taken from their families” and stressed that “aid, and the civilian lives it saves, should never be a bargaining chip”.

Gazans queue for food in January 2025 when it was more widely available in the enclave.

Generational horror

Ms. Cherevko said that over the past one and a half months, 420,000 people have been “once again forced to flee, many of them with only the clothes on their backs, shot at along the way, arriving in overcrowded shelters, as tents and other facilities where people seek safety, are being bombed”.

“I worry that five, 10, 20 years from now, we will look at our children and grandchildren in shame and we will not be able to explain to them why we could not stop this horror,” she concluded.

How much more blood must be spilled before enough becomes enough?”

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