Monthly Archives: March 2019

With Khanduri on its side, Congress eyes more LS seats in Uttarakhand

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Lok Sabha elections remained entirely aloof from state elections in Uttarakhand since its formation in 2000 and going by the past trends, the hilly state has seen major ups and downs for the ruling party, with anti-incumbency playing a vital role each time.

Uttarakhand will go for poll on April 11 in its five Lok Sabha constituencies — Haridwar, Tehri Garhwal, Almora, Pauri Garhwal and Nainital. As BJP has already announced its candidates, three of them sitting MPs, Congress list is likely to field a Khanduri this time — Manish Khanduri, son of former CM and Pauri Garhwal MP BC Khanduri. With Khanduri on its side, Congress is geared up to possibly wrest more seats this time as anti-incumbency is likely to dominate this time.

Unlike the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, when BJP swept all the 5 seats with a comfortable vote share of 55.93 per cent, the Congress ended up with a vote share of 34.40 per cent, with no seat in its kitty. Though BSP registered 5 per cent vote share, failed to emerge as a powerful third force to reckon with. The notable defections of senior Congress leaders like Vijay Bahuguna, Harak Singh Rawat and Satpal Maharaj to join BJP against Harish Rawat before the polls was one major factor cited for Congress’s defeat.

Going by the state assembly poll in 2017 where BJP won 57 out of 70 seats, the decline in its vote share is evident from 55.93 per cent to 46.5 per cent, while the Congress vote share hardly changed from 34.40 in 2014 Lok Sabha elections to 33.5 per cent. More than BSP, indpendents played the spoil-sport though the final outcome did not shake BJP that has swept the poll outcome.

Now BJP is confident to win all five seats in Uttarakhand, hoping to repeat the 2017 voting pattern, but Congress has clearly emerged stronger than before attracting younger faces to its ranks with Manish Khanduri on its side now. The state that longed for Khanduri in 2012 elections may see his son as a new ray of hope to overcome chronic problems of unemployment in the state.

Moreover, the political situation has shifted dramatically from 2017. The impact of demonetisation is seen by youth as a major factor that had eroded more jobs in the state. The draconian GST has scared many small businesses beyonnd comprehension, while Rafale deal misgivings refuse to die despite BJP’s denial.

One surprising outcome of Lok Sabha elections in Uttarakhand may not be a pro-Congress vote per se but a decisive anti-BJP vote that may not get split as the ruling party may wish. If Congress can maneuvour to concentrate on consolidating its traditional vote bank at 33 per cent vote share and then target the 17 per cent of the swing vote in the state, it can easily win four seats in Uttarakhand.

On its part, the BJP is embroiled in ill-consequences that any ruling party faces. Many strong candidates who had worked on their constituencies in the hope of getting a party ticket may now shift loyalties sooner than expected. With two veteran leaders — BC Khanduri and Bhagat Singh Koshyari — not contesting, BJP’s sittings MPs Ajay Tamta, Mala Rajya Laxmi Shah and Ramesh Pokhriyal Nishank are on defensive in the poll battle this time.

Once the Congress list of candidates in Uttarakhand is out, a clearer picture of real battle line will emerge in the state.

EC says no manifesto release with 48 hours left for voting

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Unlike in the past, the Election Commission has clearly set an outer time limit for the release of manifesto by the political parties in Lok Sabha and other elections. The poll panel said the decision was taken after receiving feedback from all political parties.

Included as para 4 under Part-VIII [Guidelines on Election ManifestosJ in the Model Code of Conduct, the rule reads as under:

4. Prohibitory period of Release of Manifesto during elections(s)

i. In case of single phase election, manifesto shall not be released during the prohibitory period, as prescribed under Section 126 of the Representation of the People Act, 1951.
ii. In case of multi-phase elections, manifesto shall not be released during the prohibitory periods, as prescribed under Section L26 of rhe Representation of the People Act, 1951, ofall the phases ofthose elections.

This provision will be applicable and implemented as a part of the Model Code of Conduct for all future elections.

To see full Guidelines click here:

Uttarakhand wakes up from inertia, Khanduri’s son joins Congress

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Uttarakhand has just five Lok Sabha seats which no national party could count on and the hills remained mute spectators to decades of negligence.

Ever since it was formed into a full State, Uttarakhand in 2000, the state often referred as the Devabhumi (Land of the Gods) due to a large number of Hindu temples and pilgrimage centres such as Haridwar, Rishikesh and Badrinath.

As per the 2011 Census, Uttarakhand has a population of 10 million people. More than one lakh people from the state work in military or para-military forces, as everytime there is a massacre on armed forces, several families in the state end up mourning the attack as is seen in the latest Pulwama one.

Fromer chief minister of the state twice, Major General BC Khanduri (Retd) raised the concern as chairman of the Parliamentary Defence Committee last year highlighting the fact that 68 percent of the arms and ammunition given to Army is of vintage in nature. Instead of acting on it, the BJP has sacked him as head of the panel just six months to go for the tenure of the House to end, sending the signal of shooting the messenger come what may.

At the turn of the elections now, BJP has seen the repercussions of its own deeds in a state where it was able to sweep the 2014 general elections and 2017 Assembly elections. Khanduri’s son Manish Khanduri has decided to take the plunge into politics and contest the elections from Pauri Garhwal that was vacated by his father owing to his old age. He could have chosen BJP but stayed away from the party, indicating the local distrust of the ruling party.

Media reports said Manish Khanduri will be contesting against National Security Advisor Ajit Doval’s son Shaurya Doval, who has announced his desire to enter the political arena a year ago and has been campaigning in the Pauri Garhwal region.

Though BJP has been trying to brush aside Khanduri Junior’s entry into the Congress fold, the clean image of senior Khanduri has remained the BJP’s key strength in the state thay may be lost forever but not for Congress which has emerged as the custodian of some highly educated and clean politicians in its fold, with Khanduri on its side now.

Some of the local concerns need more focus. The state is still agrarian and depends heavily on tourism as any other hill state. The plans for ropeways to connect summer hill stations, which had been planned when BC Khanduri was chief minister, failed to take off despite BJP’s return to power at the Centre five years ago. In the last two years since forming the state government saw only one ropeway from Doon to Mussorie out of blueprint.

Uttarakhand growth was visibly evident when BC Khanduri was its chief minister twice between 2007 and 2012. Its gross state domestic product (GSDP) more than doubled from Rs.24,786 crore in FY2005 to Rs.60,898 crore by FY2012. The contribution from the service sector being just over 50% during FY 2012, the state could have focused on employment generation ever since but foreign investments to the state remained lukewarm though the state stood on a high ground in education.

Essentially, the state is moving out of inertia and looking for more jobs and foreign investments into manufacturing sector. As home to massive forests at the foot of the Himalayan mountains, Uttarakhand has every reason to attract foreign investors but the state leadership failed to live up to the occasion or competition from more developed states elsewhere. It required a man with vision for the state’s future and not one who could thwart political opponents.

Manish Khanduri’s entry into politics and the party behind him, the Congress, may now work in unison to make the state home to many future investments in business and infrastructure projects.