Real cost of disasters is 10 times higher than previously thought, says UN

That’s according to a report released Tuesday by the UN’s disaster risk reduction agency, UNDRR.

While current estimates suggest the global economic impact of natural emergencies – such as earthquakes, landslides and floods – amounts to around $200 billion annually, this figure represents “only a fraction of the real costs,” said Jenty Kirsch-Wood, head of global risk analysis for UNDRR.

The true cost is closer to $2.3 trillion, she added, warning that the world has been “chronically underestimating and undermeasuring the impact of disasters” on sustainable development progress.

Catastrophic floods

A person born in 1990 has a 63 per cent chance of experiencing a once-in-a-century catastrophic flood in their lifetime. For a child born in 2025, that probability rises to 86 per cent.

“Those events are affecting us all,” said Ms. Kirsch-Wood.

The cost of extreme weather is not measured solely in destroyed infrastructure, but also in lost years of health, education and opportunity.

Unsustainable humanitarian response

Healthcare, education, and employment are increasingly disrupted by emergencies, leading to higher national debt and slower recovery – particularly in already vulnerable countries.

This has contributed to “an unsustainable and unsupportable humanitarian response,” Ms Kirsch-Wood added, as nations grapple with increasingly frequent and severe climate shocks.

UNDRR using data from EM-DAR, CRED/UCLouvain, 2025, Brussels, Belgium.

UNDRR using data from EM-DAR, CRED/UCLouvain, 2025, Brussels, Belgium.

Losses have doubled

According to UNDRR, financial losses from disasters have doubled in the past two decades.

The agency’s new report outlines how the international community can collaborate to make sustainable investments that build resilience to future disasters and ease pressure on public finances.

Most of the damage caused by climate-related events is preventable, Ms. Kirsch-Wood stressed.

The challenge ahead, she said, is to “better align our financing systems” and “use public and private investment to make sure that we’re optimally reducing the burden on governments.”

Nearly 240 million people were internally displaced by disasters between 2014 and 2023.

China and the Philippines each reported over 40 million displaced persons, while India, Bangladesh and Pakistan saw numbers ranging from 10 to 30 million.

The steep costs associated with climate events – and the debt they generate – disproportionately affect developing countries and vulnerable populations.

UNDRR using CRED and UCLouvain, 2025.

Vulnerable hardest-hit

In 2023, North America recorded $69.57 billion in direct disaster-related losses – more than any other region – but this amounted to just 0.23 per cent of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

By contrast, Micronesia incurred only $4.3 billion in losses, but this represented a staggering 46.1 per cent of its GDP.

The UNDRR report “shows the eye-watering losses inflicted by disasters today, which hit vulnerable people the hardest… and it demonstrates that, on our current trajectory, costs will continue to mount as the climate crisis worsens,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres.

“But it also illustrates that, by boosting and sustaining investment in disaster risk reduction and prevention, we can slow that trend and reap economic benefits – saving lives and livelihoods while driving growth and prosperity to help reach our Sustainable Development Goals.”

Private sector role

Proven tools – such as flood protection infrastructure and early warning systems – can help the worst-affected nations curb the rising costs of climate-related disasters.

Increased investment in risk reduction and resilience can reverse current trends, said the head of UNDRR, Special Representative Kamal Kishore, citing the example of protection from overflowing rivers. 

“When riverbank communities have access to scientific tools for land use planning, resources for building flood protection systems, and early warning systems, they not only reduce damages and losses from floods, but also create conditions for prosperity and sustainable growth in their communities,” he said.

The private sector, UNDRR emphasised, must also step up to “fill the protection gap that leaves many countries in a worsening spiral of repeated disasters.”

AI threatens one in four jobs – but transformation, not replacement, is the real risk

One in four jobs worldwide is potentially exposed to what’s known as generative artificial intelligence – or Generative AI – according to a new joint study from the UN labour agency (ILO) and Poland’s National Research Institute. The study finds that transforming job descriptions, not widespread job loss, is the more likely result.

Generative AI (GenAI) refers to systems that can create content such as text, images, code or data summaries in response to user prompts. As such tools become more widely used, they are expected to reshape the tasks employees perform each day.

The new ILO-NASK index draws from nearly 30,000 real-world job descriptions using worker surveys, expert reviews and AI models to identify occupations most susceptible to AI driven change.

Few jobs consist of tasks that are fully automatable with current AI technology,” the authors write. “Transformation of jobs is the most likely impact of GenAI.”

GAVI Alliance/Evelyn Hockstein

A baby has his general health recorded by a data clerk.

Women face disproportionate exposure

The study finds that in high-income countries, jobs considered at the highest risk of AI-driven task automation account for 9.6 per cent of female employment – nearly three times the share for men.

Worldwide, 4.7 per cent of women’s jobs fall into the highest-risk category, compared with 2.4 per cent for men.

This disparity is due largely to the overrepresentation of women in clerical and administrative roles, which are among the most exposed occupational groups.

These jobs often involve tasks such as data entry and document formatting and scheduling, functions that AI technologies can already perform efficiently.

While these roles are unlikely to disappear entirely, the report warns that partial automation could reduce job quality, leading to fewer responsibilities, stagnating wages and growing insecurity.

Without targeted training or role redesign, some workers – particularly women – may face limited opportunities to adapt.

A global, unequal picture

The report also identifies stark differences across regions. In high-income countries, 34 per cent of jobs are in occupations exposed to GenAI, compared to just 11 per cent in low-income countries.

Middle-income regions such as Latin America and parts of Asia fall somewhere in between.

Europe and Central Asia show the highest gender disparities, driven by high female employment in clerical roles and widespread digital adoption.

Regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and the Arab States currently show lower overall exposure but could still experience significant disruption if AI technologies spread without safeguards.

The study cautions that lower exposure does not equal lower risk. In regions where digital access is limited or labour protections are weak, even small-scale automation could destabilise vulnerable sectors.

Turning insight into action

To ensure that the transition to generative AI supports rather than displaces workers, ILO urges governments, employers and workers’ organisations to act decisively.

Central to the recommended response is the need to strengthen access to digital skills and training, particularly for women and those working in clerical or administrative roles.

The agency also highlights the importance of integrating AI planning into broader labour market and education policies.

Preparing workforces for transformation will require not only technical training, but also supportive infrastructure, modernised curricula, and alignment between employers’ needs and national policies.

Inclusivity’s a must

At the heart of this transition, authors stress, must be inclusive social dialogue. Workers should have a say in how GenAI is introduced and used in the workplace, and their experiences must inform decisions about implementation.

Without this engagement, the risks of unequal outcomes, including widening gender gaps and declining job quality, will be much greater.

Finally, the report emphasises that regions with limited digital access must not be left behind. Expanding infrastructure and ensuring equitable access to technology are critical steps in enabling all countries to shape the future of work on their own terms.

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