Tag Archives: weather forecast

Delhi under severe grip of Cold Wave, Temperatures to drop further

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A chill in the air is forecasted to hit the city of Delhi and the surrounding region next week, with temperatures potentially dropping as low as 3 degrees Celsius. Yesterday, the minimum temperature in Delhi was recorded at 10.2 degrees Celsius.

According to the Indian Meteorological Department, a cold wave is expected to hit several areas in Delhi between January 16th and 18th. The minimum temperature in Ayanagar and Ridge may reach as low as 3 degrees Celsius on Tuesday and Wednesday.

After experiencing several weeks of bitter cold nights, this forecast means that conditions may worsen for residents of Delhi. The weather department has issued a warning for frostbite and advises people to limit their time spent outdoors.

“Eat foods high in Vitamin C and drink warm fluids to maintain a strong immune system. Limit outdoor activities,” the meteorological department advised.

Another weather agency, Skymet, has reported that icy winds from the North have already led to a decrease in temperatures in the states of Rajasthan and Gujarat. However, the agency refutes the claims of an expert who predicted that temperatures in Delhi could reach as low as -4 degrees Celsius next week.

“Delhi may experience a minimum of 3-4 degrees between 16th and 18th of January, but will not drop below 0 degrees. Some isolated areas may see a minimum of around 2 degrees,” Skymet stated in a tweet.

The extremely low temperatures are expected to have the most severe impact on the homeless population and animals, and authorities have begun preparing additional shelters.

Cyclone Prapiroon: NASA’s GPM satellite finds heavy rainfall on southwestern side

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When the Global Precipitation Measurement mission or GPM core satellite passed over the Northwestern Pacific Ocean, it saw very heavy rainfall occurring in one part of Tropical Storm Prapiroon.

Tropical Depression 09W was located east of the Philippines when it was upgraded early today, June 29, to Tropical Storm Prapiroon. The tropical storm is in a favorable environment for intensification. Vertical wind shear is low above the tropical cyclone and sea surface temperatures are warm below.

NASA’s GPM core observatory satellite had a good view of Tropical Storm Prapiroon on June 29, 2018 at 0246 UTC (June 28 at 10:46 p.m. EDT). GPM is a joint mission between NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, JAXA.

At the time GPM passed overhead, Prapiroon was barely a tropical storm with maximum sustained wind speeds estimated at about 35 knots (40.3 mph). GPM’s Microwave Imager (GMI) and Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) instruments measured precipitation around Prapiroon. GPM showed that intensifying the storm was fairly large with its most intense rainfall located in the southern part of the storm. GPM’s radar (DPR Ku Band) scanned convective storms in a feeder band on the southwestern side of the tropical storm where it found that some very intense storms there were dropping rain at a rate of over 192 mm (7.6 inches) per hour.

A 3-D view of Tropical Storm Prapiroon’s precipitation, looking toward the southwest, was created at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, using data captured by GPM’s radar (DPR Ku Band). GPM’s DPR probes provided excellent information about the powerful storms in the large rain band wrapping around Prapiroon’s western side. Storm top heights in that part of the storm were measured by GPM’s radar reaching heights above 12.5 km (7.8 miles).

On June 29 at 11 a.m. EDT (1500 UTC), Prapiroon was centered near 20.0 degrees north latitude and 129.7 degrees east longitude. That’s about 404 nautical miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, Japan. The storm is moving to the northwest at 5 knots (5.7 mph/9.2 kph). Maximum sustained winds 45 knots (52 mph/83 kph).

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) predicts that Prapiroon will move toward the north-northwest and intensify into a typhoon on June 30. Prapiroon is expected to continue intensifying and have peak wind speeds of about 75 knots (86 mph/139 kph) as it passes over the East China Sea in a few days.

Prapiroon is predicted by the JTWC to be a minimal typhoon with winds of 65 knots (75 mph/120 kph) as it approaches South Korea on July 2, 2018.

Teleconnection? To forecast winter rainfall in LA, take cue from New Zealand summer

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Variability in El Niño cycles was long considered a reliable tool for predicting winter precipitation in the Southwest United States, but its forecasting power has diminished considerably over the years. Scientists at the University of California, Irvine (UCI) have found a new link to predict wet or dry conditions for the winter far ahead.

“Influences between the hemispheres promise earlier and more accurate prediction of winter precipitation in California and the Southwest U.S.,” said study co-author Efi Foufoula-Georgiou of UCI. “Knowing how much rain to expect in the coming winter is crucial for the economy, water security, and ecosystem management of the region.”

The researchers call the new ‘teleconnection’ the New Zealand Index (NZI) because the sea surface temperature anomaly that triggers it begins in July and August in the southwestern Pacific Ocean near New Zealand.

The heating or cooling of the sea surface temperature there causes a change in the southern Hadley cell, a zone of atmospheric circulation from the equator to the 30-degree south parallel.

In turn, the Hadley cell change causes an anomaly east of the Philippine Islands, resulting in a strengthening or weakening of the jet stream in the Northern Hemisphere. That directly influences the amount of rain that falls on California from November through March.

In conducting the research, the team performed an analysis of sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressures from 1950 to 2015 in 1- and 2-degree cells around the globe.

“With the NZI, we can predict the likelihood of above- or below-normal winter precipitation in the Southwest U.S.,” said lead author Antonios Mamalakis of UCI. “Our research also shows an amplification of this newly discovered “teleconnection” over the past four decades.”

Mamalakis said that the most unexpected result is the discovery of persistent sea surface temperature and atmospheric pressure patterns in the southwestern Pacific that show a strong connection with precipitation in Southern California, Nevada, Arizona and Utah.

In recent years, however, El Niño conditions did not bring heavy rains to California as they have in the past, forcing researchers to study the link in the interhemispheric bridge.

The study was published in Nature Communications. 

Weather forecast to become more accurate as new technique found now

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Meteorologists have long known for wrong rainfall forecasts but now researchers from the University of Missouri have developed a system that improves the precision of forecasts by accounting for evaporation in rainfall estimates, particularly for locations 30 miles or more from the nearest National Weather Service radar.

“Right now, forecasts are generally not accounting for what happens to a raindrop after it is picked up by radar,” said Neil Fox of the School of Natural Resources at MU. “Evaporation has a substantial impact on the amount of rainfall that actually reaches the ground. By measuring that impact, we can produce more accurate forecasts that give farmers, agriculture specialists and the public the information they need.”

Fox and doctoral student Quinn Pallardy used dual-polarization radar, which sends out two radar beams polarized horizontally and vertically, to differentiate between the sizes of raindrops. Since the size of a raindrop affects both its evaporation rate and its motion, with smaller raindrops evaporating more quickly but encountering less air resistance, a combination technique has helped them make the prediction more accurate.

By combining this information with a model that assessed the humidity of the atmosphere, the researchers were able to develop a tracing method that followed raindrops from the point when they were observed by the radar to when they hit the ground, precisely determining how much evaporation would occur for any given raindrop.

Researchers found that this method significantly improved the accuracy of rainfall estimates, especially in locations at least 30 miles from the nearest National Weather Service radar. Radar beams rise higher into the atmosphere as they travel, and as a result, radar that does not account for evaporation becomes less accurate at greater distances because it observes raindrops that have not yet evaporated.

“Many of the areas that are further from the radar have a lot of agriculture,” Fox said. “Farmers depend on rainfall estimates to help them manage their crops, so the more accurate we can make forecasts, the more those forecasts can benefit the people who rely on them.”

Fox said more accurate rainfall estimates also contribute to better weather forecasts in general, as rainfall can affect storm behavior, air quality and a variety of other weather factors.

What is Cyclone Sagar?

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Indian Met Department has issued an alert to Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Goa, Maharasthra and the Lakshadweep over the cyclone ‘Sagar’, which is building up over the Arabian Sea with potential to hit the coastal region of northern Indian Ocean on Saturday.

Formerly known as 01A, Tropical Cyclone Sagar, quickly formed in the Indian Ocean and strengthened into a tropical storm on May 16 at 3:35 a.m. IST as shown in the resolution imaging captured by the spectroradiometer aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite.

It showed thunderstorms at minus 80 degrees Celsius, which means very strong storms with a potential for heavy rainfall in the Arabian Sea with maximum sustained winds near 46 miles per hour (40 knots). Located near 13.0 degrees north latitude and 48.6 degrees east longitude, or approximately 229 nautical miles east of Aden, Yemen.

When captured NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP satellite appeared more organized and has been strengthening since May 17. On Friday, May 18 the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument aboard NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP satellite captured a true-color image of Tropical Cyclone Sagar showing the center above the Gulf of Aden, affecting Yemen and Somalia.

At 1:30 p.m IST, the Tropical Cyclone Sagar was centered near 11.6 degrees north latitude and 45.9 degrees east longitude, approximately 89 nautical miles southeast of Aden, Yemen, registering maximum sustained winds up at 69 mph (50 knots/111 kph). Currently, Sagar is moving to the west-southwest at 6.9 mph (6 knots/11.1 kph).

Sagar is likely to threaten Yemen, Somalia and Djibouti with waves as high as 17 feet, before hitting the Indian west coast on Saturday. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued an advisory that said: “Strong winds reaching upto 75-85 kmph and 95 kmph covering the Gulf of Aden and adjoining south-western Arabian Sea area are very likely duting the next 12 hours. It may then gradually decrease ato 65-75 kmph during the next 12 hours.”

Fishermen are advised not to venture into the high seas of the Gulf of Aden or west-central and south-west Arabian Sea in the next 48 hours.

Cyclone Fakir to hit AP, Odisha coast today, Heavy rains to wreak Havoc

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On April 24, NASA’s Aqua satellite captured a visible image of Tropical Cyclone Fakir, southeast of La Reunion Island. The image showed vertical wind shear was pushing the bulk of clouds southeast of the center of circulation.Credits: NASA/NRL

Tropical Cyclone Fakir tracked by NASA’s Aqua satellite, Heavy rains, tsunami-like waves likely on Indian coast of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha on Wednesday.

NASA’s Aqua satellite captured a visible image of Tropical Cyclone Fakir, southeast of La Reunion Island, that showed vertical wind shear affecting it in the Southern Indian Ocean.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center or JTWC noted on Tuesday, April 24 at 11 a.m. EDT that Fakir’s center was located near 23.3 degrees south latitude and 57.5 degrees east longitude.

From the image taken at the location is approximately 162 nautical miles south of Port Louis, Mauritius, cyclone Fakir was seen moving to the south-southeast at 18 knots (20.7 mph/33.3 kph). Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 60 knots (69 mph /111 kph).

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer or MODIS instrument aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite has captured a visible image of Fakir that showed a rapidly disintegrated system.

The image showed the cyclone elongated as the bulk of clouds and thunderstorms were being pushed to the southeast of the center, in an area of high vertical wind shear between 40 and 50 knots (46 to 57 mph/74 to 92 kph).

JTWC warned that “[Fakir] is forecast to continue deteriorating due to the severe vertical wind shear associated with the trough (elongated area of low pressure) approaching from the west and cooling sea surface temperatures along its forecast track to the southeast. The unfavorable environment will lead to dissipation by Thursday, April 26.”

The southwest Indian Ocean cyclone season that started on November 15, 2017 will last until April 30, 2018 and the major cyclone Fakir formed on Monday, April 23 near northeastern Madagascar as captured by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission or GPM core satellite looked at the storm’s rainfall rates.

On April 22, GPM showed that bands of extremely heavy rainfall were spiraling into the tropical low’s southeastern side. GPM’s radar (DPR Ku Band) showed that precipitation was falling at a rate of over 219 mm (8.6 inches) per hour in some of the strong convective storms that were moving toward Madagascar. GPM’s radar indicated that a few of the tallest intense convective storms were reaching heights of almost 16 km (9.9 miles).
Credits: NASA/JAXA, Hal Pierce

Fakir is expected to intensify as it moves toward the southeast and could be a significant tropical cyclone on Wednesday. Fakir will add woes to an already battered Madagascar by tropical cyclones Ava, Dumazile, and Eliakim.

The GPM core observatory satellite flew above the forming cyclone near northeastern Madagascar on April 22, 2018 and its Microwave Imager (GMI) and Dual Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) instruments revealed the locations of heavy rainfall linked with the forming Fakir cyclone.

GPM showed that bands of extremely heavy rainfall were spiraling into the southeastern side, precipitation was falling at a rate of over 219 mm (8.6 inches) per hour in some of the strong convective storms, seen moving toward Madagascar.

A 3-D view of precipitation in forming tropical cyclone Fakirwas simulated 3-D cross section generated at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland to show the heights of cloud tops and radar reflectivity values within the forming tropical cyclone.

GPM’s radar indicated some convective storms were reaching heights of almost 16 km (9.9 miles). On April 23, 2018 at 11 a.m. EDT, Fakir had maximum sustained winds near 40 knots (46 mph/74 kph). Fakir was centered near 6.5 degrees south latitude and 53.2 east longitude, about 313 nautical miles north-northwest of St Denis, la Reunion and seen moving southeastward to hit the Indian coast. The system is expected to peak in strength in one day, April 24.

 

 

 

Severe Weather Warning issued for next 5 Days 

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India Meteorological Department has issued severe weather warning for the five days beginning April 7, 2018 to April 11, 2018.

The northeastern belt over the Gangetic plain and Bihar, Assam  & Meghalaya  and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura are likely to witness thunderstorm accompanied with squall, said the Met agency in its latest bulletin. Southern states are likely to witness severe rains today and tomorrow. Hyderabad, Bangalore and Chennai may have to be prepared for a rainy weekend, going by the weather report.

Here is the details alert:

07 April (Day 1):

♦  Heavy rain very likely at isolated places over Meghalaya.

♦ Thunderstorm accompanied with squall and hail very likely at isolated places over Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand and Odisha.

♦ Thunderstorm accompanied with squall very likely at isolated places over Bihar, Assam  & Meghalaya  and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura.

♦ Thunderstorm accompanied with gusty winds & lightning very likely at isolated places over Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada.

♦ Thunderstorm accompanied with gusty winds very likely at isolated places over East Uttar Pradesh, interior Tamilnadu, Interior Karnataka, north Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh and Sub­Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim

08 April (Day 2):

♦ Heavy rain very likely at isolated places over Sub­Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim.

♦  Thunderstorm accompanied with squall and hail very likely at isolated places over  Uttrakhand and Odisha.

♦ Thunderstorm accompanied with squall very likely at isolated places over Sub­Himalayan West Bengal  & Sikkim, Bihar,  north Uttar Pradesh and Punjab.

♦ Thunderstorm accompanied with gusty winds & lightning very likely at isolated places over Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada  and south Konkan & Goa.

♦ Thunderstorm accompanied with gusty winds very likely at isolated places over interior Tamilnadu, Kerala, Interior  &  Coastal Karnataka,Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal and East Madhya  Pradesh.

09 April (Day 3)

♦ Thunderstorm accompanied with squall and hail likely at isolated places over Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

♦  Thunderstorm accompanied with squall likely at isolated places over Punjab.

♦  Thunderstorm accompanied with gusty winds likely at isolated places over Kerala and Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi.

10 April (Day 4):

♦ Thunderstorm accompanied with squall and hail likely at isolated places over Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

♦  Thunderstorm accompanied with squall likely at isolated places over Punjab and north Uttar Pradesh.

♦  Thunderstorm accompanied with gusty winds likely at isolated places over  Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi.

 

11  April (Day 5):

♦  Thunderstorm accompanied with gusty winds likely at isolated places over Sub­Himalayan West Bengal  & Sikkim, Assam & Meghalaya  and  Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura.

 

 

Weather Warning – 20 to 24 July, 2017 -Karnataka to Witness Heavy Rains

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India Meteorological Department has issued severe weather warning for 20th to 24thJuly, 2017 as below:

20JULY:♦

Heavy to very heavy rain at isolated places with extremely heavy falls very likely over Madhya Maharashtra and South Interior Karnataka.  Heavy   to very heavy  rain at a few places very likely over Konkan & Goa.

Heavy to very heavy rain at isolated places very likely over West Madhya Pradesh,  Gujarat State and Coastal Karnataka.

Heavy rain very likely at isolated places over Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh,Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi,East Rajasthan, East Madhya  Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh,Jharkhand, West Bengal & Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram &Tripura, North Interior  Karnataka, Tamilnadu & Pudducherry and Kerala.

21 JULY :♦

Heavy to very heavyrain at a few places with extremely heavy fallsat isolated places very likely over Gujarat State and Konkan & Goa.

Heavyto very heavyrain at isolated places very likely overEast Rajasthan, West Madhya Pradesh, Madhya Maharashtra,

Coastal Karnataka and South interior Karnatak.

Heavy rain very likely at isolated places over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Jharkhand,  Gangetic  West  Bengal, Andaman & Nicobar Islands,

Nagaland, Manipur,  Mizoram & Tripura and Kerala.

22 July  :♦

Heavyto very heavy rain at a few placeswith extremely heavy falls at isolated places very likely over Gujarat State.

Heavy   to very heavy rain  at isolated   places very likely over Konkan & Goa.

Heavy rain at a few places   with extremely heavy falls at isolated places  very likely  over East Rajasthan.

Heavy rain very likelyat isolated places over Uttarakhand, West Rajasthan, West Madhya Pradesh, MadhyaMaharashtra,

Coastal Karnataka and south Interior Karnataka

23 July :♦

Heavy to  very heavy rain at isolated places  very  likely  over  Rajasthan  and  Gujarat  region.

Heavy rain very likely at isolated places over Saurashtra & Kutch, Konkan & Goa,  Coastal Karnataka and south Interior Karnataka.

24 July :♦

Heavy  to very heavy rain at isolated  places very likely over Rajasthan.

Heavy rain very likelyat isolated places over Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, Konkan & Goa, Coastal Karnataka and south Interior Karnataka.

 

 

Heavy Rains to Lash Out Assam, Meghalaya This Weekend: Indian Met Agency

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Indian Meteorlogical Department has issued heavy to very heavy rains in nothern and north-eastern and eastern states of Uttarakhand, East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Sub­ Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim, Odisha, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.

Here is the weather forecast issued by IMD for the week starting from July 7, 2017 to July 11, 2017:

07JULY(Day1):♦ Heavy to very heavy rain very likely at isolated places over Assam & Meghalaya; heavy at isolated places over Uttarakhand, East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Sub­ Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Odisha, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura.

08JULY(Day2):♦Heavy  to very heavy rain very likely at isolated places with extremely heavy at isolated places over Assam Meghalaya; heavy at isolated places over Uttarakhand, East Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Sub Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Odisha, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram &Tripura.

09JULY(Day3):♦Heavy to very heavy rain very likely at isolated places with extremely heavy at isolated places over Assam & Meghalaya; heavy to very heavy at isolated places over Sub­ Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim; heavy at   isolated places over Uttarakhand, East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram &Tripura.

10July(Day4):♦Heavy to very heavy rain very likely at isolated places over Uttarakhand, Sub Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Assam & Meghalaya; heavy at isolated places over Himachal Pradesh, East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura and Kerala.

11July(Day5):♦Heavy to very heavy rain very likely at isolated places over Himachal Pradesh; heavy at isolated places over Uttarakhand, West Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Sub­ Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram &Tripura, Konkan & Goa and Coastal Karnataka.