Curtains Down on Tamil Nadu’s 5-Day Drama: Vijay gets 120 last minute

For five days, Tamil Nadu witnessed a political battle that swung wildly between uncertainty and inevitability. Actor-turned-politician C. Joseph Vijay, who entered the Assembly election as an outsider challenging the state’s entrenched Dravidian order, spent nearly a week struggling to bridge the final gap between electoral victory and constitutional legitimacy. By Friday night, his party Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) had finally crossed the halfway mark with support from nearly 120 legislators, ending one of the most dramatic government-formation deadlocks in recent state history.

The numbers triggered the crisis from the very beginning. In the 234-member Tamil Nadu Assembly, the majority mark stands at 118. TVK emerged as the single-largest party with 108 seats, but Vijay vacated one constituency after winning from two seats, reducing the party’s effective strength to 107 MLAs. That left him 11 short of power despite delivering the biggest electoral upset in the state in decades.

Raj Bhavan became the centre of the storm almost immediately after the results. Vijay met Governor R. V. Arlekar within hours of the verdict, staking claim to form the government with assurances of outside support. But the Governor reportedly refused to invite him to take oath without documentary proof that he could survive a floor test. The decision transformed what should have been a straightforward swearing-in into a prolonged constitutional and political showdown.

How Day-2 Turned Feverish

By the second day, Tamil Nadu’s political atmosphere had turned feverish. Rival camps accused each other of attempting “horse-trading” as parties scrambled to prevent defections. TVK insiders claimed the party was in touch with independents and smaller regional groups, while opposition formations explored counter-combinations to stop Vijay from taking office. Reports surfaced that several MLAs had been moved to resorts and secure locations amid fears of poaching.

The uncertainty deepened after dramatic shifts among potential allies. Congress legislators backed Vijay early, taking the tally beyond 110, but support from other parties fluctuated through the week. At one stage, the Indian Union Muslim League publicly denied extending support to TVK, creating fresh doubts about whether Vijay could reach the majority mark before the Assembly deadline.

As negotiations intensified, TVK leaders began direct outreach to Left parties and the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK). Behind closed doors, discussions reportedly centred on preventing a rival coalition led by the DMK or AIADMK from claiming power through post-poll arithmetic. Political circles in Chennai were also rocked by speculation that the two Dravidian rivals were considering tactical cooperation solely to keep Vijay out of office — a possibility unthinkable in Tamil Nadu politics until this election.

When VCK Joined Chorus Last Minute

The breakthrough came late on Friday when VCK formally announced “unconditional support” to the TVK-led bloc. The CPI and CPI(M) also backed Vijay, arguing that the state required stability and should avoid prolonged uncertainty or President’s Rule. The support dramatically changed the numbers. TVK’s tally climbed from 107 to around 120 MLAs, finally crossing the constitutional threshold required to form government.

VCK chief Thol. Thirumavalavan said the decision was aimed at “protecting democratic stability” in Tamil Nadu and preventing a governance vacuum. CPI(M) leaders also publicly indicated that the oath-taking process was expected to move forward once formal support letters were submitted to the Governor.

On the fifth day of the deadlock, Vijay returned to Raj Bhavan carrying written support from allied parties and independents. Sources indicated that this was his third major meeting with the Governor since the election results were announced. Outside the Governor’s residence, thousands of TVK supporters gathered through the day as speculation mounted that the stalemate had finally ended.

Final Arithmetic Reflects Dramatic Turnaround:

  • TVK: 107 MLAs after vacancy adjustment
  • Congress: 5 MLAs
  • CPI: 2 MLAs
  • CPI(M): 2 MLAs
  • VCK: 2 MLAs
  • IUML and others: remaining support taking the bloc to nearly 120 MLAs.

For Tamil Nadu politics, the implications extend far beyond one government formation battle. The five-day crisis exposed the vulnerability of the traditional DMK-AIADMK structure and demonstrated how Vijay’s entry has disrupted electoral equations that dominated the state for nearly half a century. What began as a celebrity-led insurgency has now turned into a full-scale political realignment with consequences likely to reshape the state’s future.

Elections 2024: Tamil Nadu remains strong bastion for INDIA bloc

Lok Sabha elections will be held in Tamil Nadu in a single phase on April 19.  All 39 seats in Tamil Nadu and one seat in Puducherry will vote in a single phase on April 19 and the counting of votes will be held on June 4.

Ahead of the April 19 Lok Sabha polls, Tamil Nadu’s ruling DMK appears to be confident after implementing several welfare measures including the Rs 1,000 per month assistance to women.

Led by Chief Minister M K Stalin, the DMK and its other key constituent of the INDIA alliance, the Congress are approaching the polls in good humour with full confidence to win at least 35 out of 39 seats of the Lok Sabha in Tamil Nadu, and Congress retain its lead in Puducherry’s single seat.

Since the major regional rival AIADMK, shadowed by infighting, walked out of the BJP alliance, it’s likely to split the NDA-vote seen in the 2019 elections. The BJP is, however, hopeful of reversing the fortune under an aggressive K Annamalai who is the state BJP head.

Since the Congress’ alliance with DMK and other Left parties under INDIA bloc is going strong in the state, the results may upset all other rival candidates in the state.

 

Sasikala on comeback path, confident to lead AIADMK at appropriate time

Ousted interim general secretary of the AIADMK, V.K. Sasikala said that she was on a comeback path and will lead the party at an appropriate time. She also said that she and O. Panneerselvam were together and that she would soon visit the party headquarters in Chennai.

Sasikala in a statement on Friday said that the AIADMK would win all the Lok Sabha seats from Tamil Nadu in the 2024 general elections. The estranged leader said that the majority of the party cadres are with her and O. Panneerselvam and that she would soon be at the helm of affairs in the party.

The former aide of late Chief Minister, J. Jayalalithaa who was one of the most powerful figures in the AIADMK, said that the Chief Minister M.K. Stalin does not have any time for governance and was busy in photo shoots.

The former interim general secretary of the AIADMK said that the party cadres are for a change in the AIADMK and said that several leaders and cadres have approached her.

The powerful Thevar community, which has been a traditional support base for the AIADMK in South India, has been trying to bridge the gap between Sasikala and O. Panneerselvam who both are from the community. With O. Panneerselvam being targeted in the AIADMK, the Thevar community has been taking initiatives for an alliance between the two powerful Thevar leaders.