Thursday night the Trump administration issued a temporary general license authorizing the delivery, sale and offloading of Russian crude and petroleum products loaded onto vessels on or before March 12, 2026, to stabilize global energy markets following the soaring of crude oil prices by the 13 years war between the U.S. and Israel, who war with Iran.
The license, called General License 134, takes effect through the middle of the Washington time on April 11, giving a 30-day period to such transactions, even involving authorized entities or vessels.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the move on X, saying: “US is granting a provisional sanction to allow nations to buy Russian oil already at sea.”
Bessent further highlighted that the action will be a short-term, narrowly focused action that is only applicable in the oil already under transit but it would not give great financial relief to the Russian government, which gets most of its energy revenue as taxes levied at the point of extraction.
The move comes after the recent spike in oil prices due to the strikes by the U.S and Israel on Iran that started February 28, 2026, including the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and strikes on Iranian nuclear, missile, and military facilities.
Congestion of the Strait of Hormuz and less output of the Middle East have propelled prices upwards, with the Brent crude futures already trading past $100 a barrel on Thursday, although prices have soared to a high of 110-119 a barrel in recent trading.
Goldman Sachs predicts that in March Brent will exceed the $100-mark because of the volatility, which also marks the middle of a loss of supply that will result in a potential addition of supply to oil-starved markets.
Experts predict that the waiver will release up to 100-128 million barrels of Russian oil that is currently at sea and will likely add to affected markets. The presidential envoy of Russia Kirill Dmitriev advocated the move stating that the move concerns approximately 100 million barrels of it and it shows the involvement of Russian energy in global stability.
The license is a follow-up on a waiver of a prior March waiver specifically to India which is criticized. It has now allowed sales across the globe and this has given Russia a financial boost. The move has led to a rise in oil income in Moscow where certain reports reveal that there has been an increment of about $150 million per day more oil sales due to the rise in prices.
In February, Russia earned about $9.5 billion from oil and product exports, or roughly $339 million per day (based on 28 days). January revenues were $11.1 billion. Annual projections under normal conditions (pre-escalation) ranged from $113-129 billion for 2026, depending on sanctions enforcement.
India’s shift to Russian oil
Earlier March projections had India’s Russian crude imports dropping sharply to low levels (~129,000 bpd or less in some forecasts) due to intensified U.S. sanctions pressure and tariffs. However, with Middle Eastern supplies choked by the Iran conflict and Hormuz effectively closed, India has dramatically ramped up purchases. Indian refiners snapped up around 30 million barrels of Russian crude in recent days following a temporary U.S. waiver allowing deals on in-transit (already-loaded) sanctioned cargoes. March volumes are now tracking toward 1.5-1.6 million bpd so far, with projections for the full month potentially reaching 40 million barrels (pre-sanctions levels), as buyers like India and China seek alternatives to offset the ~10-20 million bpd global shortfall.
With U.S. temporary sanctions relief by Washington for 30 days Russia is likely to reap an estimated up to $150 million per day in extra budget revenues from surging oil prices and renewed demand, which means a ~14% jump over February averages, driven by higher export taxes. Cumulative early gains from oil export duties alone are pegged at $1.3-1.9 billion since the conflict escalated, with potential for $3.3-4.9 billion more by month-end if trends hold.
Mineral extraction tax surge
Russia’s key oil production levy (mineral extraction tax) is projected to nearly double in March to around 590 billion rubles (~$7.43 billion), thanks to the global price rally pushing taxable Urals prices well above the budget’s $59/bbl assumption (recently hitting $70-90+ levels in various reports, sometimes at premiums in India).
With Urals now trading much closer to (or occasionally above) Brent amid the crisis, and exports potentially stabilizing or rising on Asian demand, Russia’s full-year oil revenues could significantly exceed pre-conflict forecasts. Sustained high prices and volumes might push totals toward the higher end of prior estimates ($200-250 billion or more), offering major fiscal breathing room despite sanctions.
These developments highlight Russia’s unexpected position as a prime beneficiary of the energy crunch, flipping prior sanction dynamics in its favor, at least short-term.
Democrats Oppose Trump’s Move
The step has received criticism by congressional democrats and European leaders. The decision was condemned by senate democrats like Elizabeth Warren, Jeanne Shaheen, Chuck Schumer and others as giving Putin a huge financial hit during his war in Ukraine and the Iran conflict was deemed reckless and ill-conceived, and is claimed to have strengthened the argument that the administration is enriching Russia at the cost of Middle East shocks.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz reacted to the decision saying it was wrong and the Iran fighting was inadvisable and windfall profits were enriching Russia. The administration has positioned the step as a logistical one, ensuring the stranded cargoes do not disrupt shipping instead of the relief of broad sanctions, but critics say that this is a way of undercutting long-term effort to stop Russian revenue.