World Bank Forecasts 6.7% GDP Growth in India Next Three Years

In its latest report, the World Bank anticipates India to maintain its status as the world’s fastest-growing economy, fueled by robust domestic demand, increased investment, and a thriving services sector. The forecast predicts a steady growth trajectory, with India expected to achieve a GDP growth rate of 6.7% over the next three fiscal years.

The ‘Global Economic Prospects’ report underscores India’s resilience, projecting a growth rate of 6.6% for the fiscal year 2025. Despite expectations of a moderation in expansion, India is poised to outpace other major economies.

The World Bank’s projections extend further, with the Indian economy forecasted to grow at rates of 6.7% and 6.8% for fiscal years 2026 and 2027, respectively. The report highlights factors such as a recovery in agricultural output and declining inflation contributing to buoyant private consumption growth.

Echoing similar sentiments, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) have raised their growth forecasts for India. The IMF cites strong domestic demand and a burgeoning working-age population as catalysts for the upward revision.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das recently revised India’s GDP growth forecast for the current financial year to 7.2%, anticipating sustained momentum across all quarters. Notably, India recorded a robust GDP growth of 7.8% in the January-March quarter of 2024, contributing to an impressive annual growth rate of 8.2% for the fiscal year 2023-24.

The Ministry of Statistics attributes this stellar performance to the remarkable strides made by the manufacturing and mining sectors, underscoring India’s economic resilience amidst global uncertainties.

After World Bank, IMF Too Downgrades India Growth Story Post-Demonetization

after the traumatic brakes on India growth story due to demonetisation, India will see a GDP loss of 1% in the current fiscal year and 0.4% next year, said IMF within days after the World Bank downgraded India growth estimate.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates India’s growth rate for the current fiscal year to 6.6% from its previous estimate of 7.6% due to what it termed a “temporary negative consumption shock” from demonetization.

“In India, the growth forecast for the current (2016-17) and next fiscal year were trimmed by one percentage point and 0.4 percentage point, respectively, primarily due to the temporary negative consumption shock induced by cash shortages and payment disruptions associated with the recent currency note withdrawal and exchange initiative,” the IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO).

But China with 6.7% will be the fastest growing economy surpassing India now with 0.1 percentage point more. The revised estimate for China to 6.5%, 0.3 percentage point above the October forecast was attributed to continued policy support.

In 2018, China’s growth rate is projected to be 6% against India’s 7.7%. The global growth for 2016 is now estimated at 3.1% as per the October 2016 forecast.

Economic activity in both advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) will accelerate in 2017-18, with global growth projected to be 3.4% and 3.6%, respectively, said IMF keeping its October forecast in tact.

Earlier, even the World Bank decelerated India’s GDP growth for 2016-17 fiscal to 7% from its previous estimate of 7.6% citing the impact of demonetization. But it said India would regain momentum in the following years with a growth of 7.6% and 7.8% due to a reform initiatives.

Maurice Obstfeld, Economic Counsellor and IMF Research Department Director, at a news conference was upbeat on China growth story.

“Our China growth upgrade for 2017 is a key factor underpinning the coming year’s expected faster global recovery. This change reflects an expectation of continuing policy support; but a sharp or disruptive slowdown in the future remains a risk given continuing rapid credit expansion, impaired corporate debts, and persistent government support for inefficient state-owned firms,” he said.

In light of the US economy’s expected momentum coming from new President-elect Donald Trump’s policies may likely shift the next two-year projections for US growth, IMF said.

IMF Sees Subdued Growth, Warns of Stagnation, Rise in Protectionism

With global growth subpar at 3.1% in 2016, with slight increase to 3.4% next year, persistent stagnation in advanced economies could further fuel anti-trade sentiment with calls for protectionism in developed economies, said IMF in its latest outllok that may send warning bells to India and China.

Global economic growth will remain subdued this year following a slowdown in the United States and Britain’s vote to leave the European Union, the IMF said in its October 2016 World Economic Outlook.

Growth in emerging Asia, and especially India, continues to be resilient, it said. India’s gross domestic product is projected to expand 7.6% this year and next, the fastest pace among the world’s major economies. The IMF urged India to continue reform of its tax system and eliminate subsidies to provide more resources for investments in infrastructure, education, and health care.

On global economy, IMF chief economist Maurice Obstfeld said: “We have slightly marked down 2016 growth prospects for advanced economies while marking up those in the rest of the world."

The 2016 report highlighted the precarious nature of the recovery in 8 years after the global financial crisis. It raised the specter that persistent stagnation, particularly in advanced economies, could further fuel populist calls for restrictions on trade and immigration. Obstfeld said such restrictions would hamper productivity, growth, and innovation.

"It is vitally important to defend the prospects for increasing trade integration," Obstfeld, said. “Turning back the clock on trade can only deepen and prolong the world economy’s current doldrums.”

To support growth in the near term, the central banks in advanced economies should maintain easy monetary policies, spend more on education, technology, and infrastructure, counteract waning potential growth through structural reforms and reduce barriers to market entry, IMF said.

The world economy will expand 3.1% this year, the IMF said, unchanged from its July projection. Next year, growth will increase slightly to 3.4% on the back of recoveries in major emerging market nations, including Russia and Brazil.

Advanced economies will expand just 1.6 %in 2016, less than last year’s 2.1 %pace and down from the July forecast of 1.8 percent.

The IMF marked down its forecast for the United States this year to 1.6 percent, from 2.2% in July, following a disappointing first half caused by weak business investment and diminishing pace of stockpiles of goods. U.S. growth is likely to pick up to 2.2% next year as the drag from lower energy prices and dollar strength fades.

Further increases in the Federal Reserve’s policy rate “should be gradual and tied to clear signs that wages and prices are firming durably,” the IMF said.

Uncertainty following the “Brexit’’ referendum in June will take a toll on the confidence of investors. U.K. growth is predicted to slow to 1.8 % this year and to 1.1%in 2017, down from 2.2% last year.

The euro area will expand 1.7%this year and 1.5% next year, compared with 2% growth in 2015.

“The European Central Bank should maintain its current appropriately accommodative stance,” the IMF said. “Additional easing through expanded asset purchases may be needed if inflation fails to pick up.”

Growth in Japan, the world’s number 3 economy, is expected to remain subdued at 0.5% this year and 0.6% in 2017. In the near term, government spending and easy monetary policy will support growth; in the medium term, Japan’s economy will be hampered by a shrinking population.

In emerging market and developing economies, growth will accelerate for the first time in six years, to 4.2 percent, slightly higher than the July forecast of 4.1 percent. Next year, emerging economies are expected to grow 4.6 percent.

In China, policymakers will continue to shift the economy away from its reliance on investment and industry toward consumption and services, a policy that is expected to slow growth in the short term while building the foundations for a more sustainable long-term expansion. Still, China’s government should take steps to rein in credit that is “increasing at a dangerous pace’’ and cut off support to unviable state-owned enterprises, “accepting the associated slower GDP growth,” the IMF said.

China’s economy, the world’s second largest, is forecast to expand 6.6 %this year and 6.2% in 2017, down from growth of 6.9 % last year.

“External financial conditions and the outlook for emerging market and developing economies will continue to be shaped to a significant extent by market perceptions of China’s prospects for successfully restructuring and rebalancing its economy,’’ the IMF said.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest economies continue to struggle with lower commodity revenues, weighing on growth in the region. Nigeria’s economy is forecast to shrink 1.7 %in 2016, and South Africa’s will barely expand. By contrast, several of the region’s non-commodity exporters, including Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Senegal, are expected to continue to grow at a robust pace of more than 5 %this year.

Economic activity slowed in Latin America, as several countries are mired in recession, with recovery expected to take hold in 2017. Venezuela’s output is forecast to plunge 10 %this year and shrink another 4.5 %in 2017. Brazil will see a contraction of 3.3 %this year, but is expected to grow at 0.5 %in 2017, on the assumption of declining political and policy uncertainty and the waning effects of past economic shocks.

Countries in the Middle East are still confronting challenging conditions from subdued oil prices, as well as civil conflict and terrorism.