NASA ranks 2022 as 5th warmest year, NOAA says 6th highest since 1880

NASA said earth’s average surface temperature in 2022 tied with 2015 as the fifth warmest year on record and the situation is “alarming”. However, another study by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) termed 2022 as the sixth highest since 1880.

The global temperatures in 2022 were 1.6-degree Fahrenheit (0.89-degree Celsius) above the average for NASA’s baseline period (1951-1980), according to researchers at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York.

“This warming trend is alarming. Our warming climate is already making a mark: Forest fires are intensifying; hurricanes are getting stronger; droughts are wreaking havoc and sea levels are rising,” said NASA Administrator Bill Nelson.

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The past nine years have been the warmest since modern record-keeping began in 1880 and the Earth in 2022 was about 2-degree Fahrenheit (or about 1.11-degree Celsius) warmer than the late 19th century average.

“NASA is deepening our commitment to do our part in addressing climate change. Our Earth System Observatory will provide state-of-the-art data to support our climate modelling, analysis and predictions to help humanity confront our planet’s changing climate,” Nelson explained.

Human-driven greenhouse gas emissions have rebounded following a short-lived dip in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic, said NASA scientists. Overall, scientists determined that carbon dioxide emissions were the highest on record in 2022.

NASA also identified some super-emitters of methane using the Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation instrument that was launched to the International Space Station last year. (Read this story here)

 

2022

“The reason for the warming trend is that human activities continue to pump enormous amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, and the long-term planetary impacts will also continue,” said Gavin Schmidt, Director of GISS, NASA’s leading centre for climate modelling.

NOAA says 6th warmest year

However, NOAA has on record said the year 2022 was the warmest year on record since 1880.

The planet continued its warming trend in 2022, with last year ranking as the sixth-warmest year on record since 1880, said a report by scientists from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

Climate by the numbers

The report said the Earth’s average land and ocean surface temperature in 2022 was 1.55 degrees F (0.86 of a degree C) above the 20th-century average of 57.0 degrees F (13.9 degrees C) — the sixth highest among all years in the 1880-2022 record.

The report notes that 2022 also marked the 46th-consecutive year (since 1977) with global temperatures rising above the 20th-century average. The 10-warmest years on record have all occurred since 2010, with the last nine years (2014-2022) among the 10-warmest years.

The 2022 Northern Hemisphere surface temperature was also the sixth highest in the 143-year record at 1.98 degrees F (1.10 degrees C) above average. The Southern Hemisphere surface temperature for 2022 was the seventh highest on record at 1.10 degrees F (0.61 of a degree C) above average, said the report.

2022 Events Behind Warming Climate

  • Global ocean heat content (OHC) hit a record high: The upper ocean heat content, which addresses the amount of heat stored in the upper 2,000 meters of the ocean, was record high in 2022, surpassing the previous record set in 2021. The four highest OHCs have all occurred in the last four years (2019-2022).
  • Polar sea ice ran low: The 2022 annual Antarctic sea ice extent (coverage) was at a near-record low at 4.09 million square miles. Only the year 1987 had a smaller annual extent. During 2022, each month had an extent that ranked among the five smallest for their respective months, while the months of February, June, July and August had their lowest monthly extent on record.

In the Arctic, the average annual sea ice extent was approximately 4.13 million square miles — the 11th-smallest annual average sea ice extent in the 1979-2022 record, according to data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

  • Global tropical cyclones were near average: A total of 88 named storms occurred across the globe in 2022, which was near the 1991-2020 average. Of those, 40 reached tropical cyclone strength (winds of 74 mph or higher) and 17 reached major tropical cyclone strength (winds of 111 mph or higher). The global accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) — an integrated metric of the strength, frequency and duration of tropical storms — was the fourth lowest since 1981.
  • December 2022 was warm: The average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces in December was 1.44 degrees F (0.80 of a degree C) above the 20th-century average. This ranks as the eighth-warmest December in the 143-year NOAA record.

Regionally, Africa tied 2016 for its second-warmest December on record. South America’s December ranked fourth warmest on record, while Europe saw its 10th warmest. Although North America and Asia both had an above-average December temperature, neither ranked among the 20 warmest on record.

 

 

Is the Earth warming? The ocean gives you the answer

Humans have released carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, and the result is an accumulation of heat in the Earth’s climate system, commonly referred to as “global warming”. “How fast is the Earth’s warming?” is a key question for decision makers, scientists and general public.

Previously, the global mean surface temperature has been widely used as a key metric of global warming. However, a new study published in AGU’s Eos proposed a better way of measuring global warming: monitoring ocean heat content change and sea level rise. The authors come from a variety of international communities including China (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences), U.S.A. (NCAR, NOAA, and University of St. Thomas) and France (Mercator Ocean).

To determine how fast the Earth is accumulating heat, scientists focus on the Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI): the difference between incoming solar radiation and outgoing longwave (thermal) radiation. Increases in the EEI are directly attributable to human activities that increase carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Extra heat trapped by increasing greenhouse gases mainly ends up in the oceans (more than 90% is stored there). Hence, to measure global warming, we have to measure ocean warming!

On the other hand, the amplitude of the global warming signal compared with natural variability (noise) defines how well a metric tracks global warming. This study shows that the temporal evolution of ocean heat content has relatively high signal-to-noise ratio; therefore, it requires 3.9 years to separate the global warming trend from natural variability. Similarly, for sea level rise, 4.6 years are sufficient to detect the climate change signal. By contrast, owing to weather, El Niño – Southern Oscillation and other natural variability embedded in the global mean surface temperature record, scientists need at least 27 years of data to detect a robust trend. An excellent example is the 1998-2013 period, when energy was redistributed within the Earth’s system and the rise of global mean surface temperature slowed – sometimes call a “hiatus”.

This study suggests that changes in ocean heat content, the dominant component of Earth’s energy imbalance, should be a fundamental metric along with sea level rise. Based on the recent improvements of ocean monitoring technologies, especially after 2005 through autonomous floats called Argo, and advanced methodologies to reconstruct the historical ocean temperature record, scientists have been able to quantify ocean heat content changes back to 1960, even though there is a much sparser historical instrument record prior to 2005. Sea level rise is best known since 1993 when altimeters were first launched on satellites to enable sea level change observations to millimeter accuracy.

According to the most up-to-date estimates, the top-10 warmest years of the ocean (indicated by OHC change at upper 2000m) are all in the most recent decade after 2006, with 2015-2016 the warmest period among the past 77 years. The heat storage in the ocean amounts to an increase of 30.4×1022 Joules (J) since 1960, equal to a heating rate of 0.33 Watts per square meter (W m-2) averaged over the entire Earth’s surface– and 0.61 W m-2 after 1992. For comparison, the increase in ocean heat content observed since 1992 in the upper 2000 meters is about 2000 times the total net generation of electricity by U.S. utility companies in 2015.

It is evident that scientists and modelers who seek global warming signals should track how much heat the ocean has stored at any given time, i.e. ocean heat content, as well as sea level rise. Locally, in the deep tropics, ocean heat content directly relates to hurricane activity. Ocean heat content is a vital sign of our planet and informs societal decisions about adaptation to and mitigation of climate change.

India to Join 100 Other Nations to Ratify Paris Climate Pact on April 22

Reiterating India’s commitment to carbon emission reduction, Union Environment, Forests & Climate Change Minister Prakash Javadekar on Saturday said India, along with 100 other nations would ratify the COP 21 Global Climate Agreement on April 22.

The pact, COP 21, reached at Paris summit in December 2015 would be ratified at a high level signing ceremony to be convened at the UN Headquarters in New York. The agreement sets out a global action plan to put the world on track by limiting global warming below 2 degree Celsius.

Speaking at a Symposium “COP 21 – Building Synergies, Shaping Actions” organized in the University of Mumbai, Javadekar said, “All countries have decided to walk the green path as per their common but differentiated responsibilities… India was always perceived to be a naysayer and negative in its approach and took a corner seat in most of the international conferences. But in Paris, Prime Minister Narendra Modi introduced the concept of climate justice driving home the message of sustainable development.”

The minister said climate change by 1 degree rise in temperature caused by 150 years of uncontrolled carbon emission by the developed world needs to be reversed. He said while 30% of cumulative contribution was that of the United States, 50% by Europe, Canada and other developed world and 10% by China, India was responsible for only 3% carbon emission but still “it wants to be part of the solution.”

Highllighting some pro-active measures to discourage use of fossil fuels in a bid to reduce carbon foot print by levying Rs 400 per tonne green cess on coal, he said: “If the developed world followed India’s example and levied higher taxes on coal, billions of dollars would accrue to pursue clean energy programmes.”

Further the proposed Compensatory Afforestation Funds Bill 2015 would unlock Rs 40,000 crores for the ‘Green India’ initiative and other plans to control vehicular pollution by moving to Bharat VI emission norms, policies on waste management, Swachch Bharat initiative, Ganga rejuvenation among others would contribute to contain climate change, said the minister.

Union Minister of State (IC) for Coal, Power, New & Renewable Energy Piyush Goyal said his portfolios put him in an awkward situation. “I am a polluter as well as a pollution container”, he said. On solutions undertaken to contain climate change, he said India has launched the world’s largest renewable energy programme by scaling up the target for solar energy. “The solar energy mission envisaged 20,000 Mw of solar electricity generation by 2022. But this target has been pushed ahead by the Prime Minister to 1,00,000 Mw (1Gw),” Goyal said. But all renewable energy programmes will be sustainable only if they become economically viable, he noted.

“While one is aware of pollution caused by the thermal power plants, their importance cannot be overlooked. Therefore, our thrust is on adopting clean coal technologies” he added.

Crocodiles Set to Face Extinction, Says Australian Researcher

An estuarine crocodile, also known as a “saltie”.

Many of the world’s 27 species of crocodylians will soon be either totally or locally extinct due to human population expansion and intensive land-use for agriculture depleting the water bodies, which provide succour to crocs, said a University of Queensland researcher.

Emeritus Professor Gordon Grigg of UQ says the fact that these reptiles had survived millions of years was no good owing to current rate of human expansion and encroachment of natural resources. “The current human population level and its magnitude and rate of resource consumption are unprecedented,” Professor Grigg said.

Only those crocs living in remote wetland habitats in which humans see no benefit may survive into the future, he said. Some crocodylians might have already become extinct if not for active conservation management undertaken in the second half of the 20th Century.

“For some species, the incentive for conserving them has been the commercial value of their hides, but that is dependent upon its use in high fashion garments and accessories, and that is a somewhat fragile foundation,” he said.

On flip side, the rising temperatures and sea levels may turn a more positive note for crocodylians, as it may create more habitat that will be suitable for any species to survive the human onslaught, he said wryly.

The largest living crocodiles, the estuarine or saltwater crocodile (Crocodylus porosus), are found in Northern Australia and can grow to six metres and weigh more than 900 kilograms.

Professor Grigg said estuarine crocodiles, also known as Indo-Pacific crocodiles or “salties”, were one of the luckier species because human populations across Australia’s north were unlikely to increase significantly in the next few decades.  They might be among the survivors.

Professor Grigg and illustrator and biologist David Kirshner, in their recent book, Biology and Evolution of Crocodylians, reviewed the biology of the crocodiles, alligators, caimans and gharials, and also discusses the great diversity of their gigantic extinct ancestors, some of which were probably warm-blooded.