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Budget 2026 Signals A Clear Outreach To NRIs

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• NRI equity investment limit per company doubled to 10%, aggregate cap raised to 24%.
• MAT exemption announced for non-residents under presumptive taxation.
• TCS on foreign education and medical remittances cut to 2%.
• Property sale compliance eased; buyers no longer need a separate TAN.

The Union Budget 2026–27 has marked a notable shift in the Centre’s approach towards Non-Resident Indians, positioning the global Indian diaspora as a more active participant in India’s investment and growth story. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman unveiled a series of measures aimed at easing compliance, lowering tax friction and expanding investment access for non-residents, particularly in equities and real estate.

The most significant reform relates to equity investments. The budget has doubled the individual investment limit for NRIs and overseas residents in listed Indian companies from 5% to 10% of paid-up capital. At the same time, the overall ceiling for all non-resident investors has been increased to 24%. Officials see this as a move to deepen capital markets and attract stable overseas capital at a time of global financial uncertainty.

Tax relief formed the second pillar of the government’s NRI-focused initiatives. Non-resident taxpayers opting for the presumptive taxation regime will now be exempt from Minimum Alternate Tax (MAT), a change intended to simplify filings and reduce disputes. The finance ministry said the exemption would reduce compliance burdens and provide greater clarity to overseas taxpayers with limited operations in India.

Liberalised Remittance Scheme

The budget also addressed concerns around remittances under the Liberalised Remittance Scheme. Tax Collected at Source on overseas spending for education and medical treatment has been reduced to 2% from 5%, offering immediate relief to families supporting students and patients abroad. The move is expected to improve cash flows without altering reporting requirements.

In the real estate segment, long-standing procedural hurdles for NRIs were eased. Buyers of property from non-resident sellers will no longer be required to obtain a separate Tax Deduction and Collection Account Number to deduct TDS. The government said this simplification would reduce delays in transactions and encourage smoother property sales involving overseas Indians.

Taken together, the budget measures underline a broader policy intent to integrate NRIs more closely into India’s financial ecosystem, moving beyond remittances to long-term investment participation. Market experts note that while the reforms are structurally positive, their success will depend on clarity in implementation and stability in global markets.

The 2026 budget, analysts say, sends a clear signal that the government sees the Indian diaspora not just as external stakeholders, but as strategic partners in the country’s next phase of economic expansion.

‘Very Disappointing, No Relief For Ordinary People’: Opposition Slams Union Budget 2026

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Opposition parties mounted a sharp attack on the Union Budget 2026 on Sunday, accusing the government of failing to address the concerns of ordinary citizens, farmers, unemployed youth and small businesses, even as Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented her ninth consecutive Budget in Parliament.

Leaders across parties said the Budget lacked concrete relief measures, ignored key states and sectors, and prioritised headline announcements over tackling deeper economic challenges.

Congress MP Shashi Tharoor said the Budget speech made no reference to Kerala, calling it disappointing though he noted that finer details would emerge once the documents were studied. “The speech itself contains very few details that are actually necessary,” he said.

Another Congress MP, Ujjwal Raman Singh, said the Budget lacked the energy required to revive confidence. “Farmers, unemployed youth and even large states like Uttar Pradesh have been neglected. People expected announcements for regions like Prayagraj, but there was nothing,” he said, alleging that several schemes appeared skewed towards election-bound states.

Congress leaders air opposition

Former Uttarakhand Chief Minister Harish Rawat said the Budget offered little to vulnerable sections. “There is nothing here for the poor, farmers or women. It is buried under slogans about a developed India by 2047,” he said.

Congress Rajya Sabha MP Jebi Mather echoed concerns over Kerala’s exclusion, saying the state had hoped for specific initiatives, including high-speed rail projects. “Kerala has once again been ignored,” she said.

Congress MP Shashikant Senthil described the Budget as lacking policy direction. “There is nothing that stands out as a major decision. There is nothing substantial for common citizens, farmers or MSMEs,” he said.

Raising broader economic concerns, former Union Minister Manish Tewari said structural issues remained unaddressed. “Nominal GDP growth has weakened, tax buoyancy is poor and private investment is not picking up. Increased public capital expenditure only highlights the lack of private investment momentum,” he said, adding that foreign direct investment was also slowing.

Congress MP Imran Masood criticised the absence of export-related relief, particularly for regions affected by global tariffs. “Exports have collapsed in places like Moradabad and Saharanpur, but there is no support for exporters,” he said.

SP slams Budget as ‘Disappointing’

Leaders from other opposition parties also voiced dissatisfaction. Aam Aadmi Party MP Malwinder Singh Kang said Punjab and Haryana had been overlooked in tourism and expressway projects, while inflation relief was missing. “The poor have received nothing from this Budget,” he said.

Samajwadi Party MP Rajeev Kumar Rai called the Budget confusing and disappointing, alleging it favoured a few corporate houses. His party colleague Neeraj Kushwaha Maurya said farmers and large states had been ignored, adding that welfare schemes such as MGNREGA had not received adequate support.

Shiv Sena (UBT) MP Priyanka Chaturvedi said the Budget fell short at a time of global economic uncertainty. “Exporters are suffering, common people have received nothing, and markets reacted negatively. A truly visionary Budget would have inspired confidence,” she said.

Shiv Sena (UBT) spokesperson Anand Dubey said the Budget failed to deliver fresh ideas. “There was no tax relief, no meaningful push for jobs or startups. It does not bring happiness to ordinary people,” he said.

The Opposition said it would examine the detailed Budget documents in the coming days but maintained that the initial presentation failed to inspire confidence or address pressing economic anxieties facing households and businesses.

Budget 2026 Sets Growth Push With Manufacturing, Infra, Tax Overhaul At Core

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Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Sunday presented the Union Budget 2026–27, outlining an ambitious growth strategy anchored in manufacturing expansion, infrastructure investment and sweeping tax reforms, while maintaining a tight fiscal framework amid global economic uncertainty.

The Budget, the first to be prepared at Kartavya Bhawan, is built around three stated kartavyas—accelerating economic growth, building people’s capabilities, and ensuring inclusive access to opportunities under the vision of Sabka Sath, Sabka Vikas.

For 2026–27, the government pegged total expenditure at ₹53.5 lakh crore and non-debt receipts at ₹36.5 lakh crore, with net tax receipts estimated at ₹28.7 lakh crore. The fiscal deficit is projected at 4.3% of GDP, marginally lower than 4.4% in 2025–26, while the debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to ease to 55.6%.

Manufacturing, Infrastructure Take Centre Stage

A major thrust has been placed on scaling up manufacturing across seven strategic and frontier sectors, including biopharma, semiconductors, electronics, textiles, chemicals, capital goods and critical minerals.

The government announced a ₹10,000 crore Biopharma SHAKTI programme, expanded the Electronics Components Manufacturing Scheme to ₹40,000 crore, and unveiled India Semiconductor Mission 2.0 to strengthen domestic design, equipment and materials capacity.

To reduce dependence on imports of critical inputs, dedicated rare earth corridors will be developed in Odisha, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, covering mining, processing, research and manufacturing.

Public capital expenditure will rise to ₹12.2 lakh crore, alongside the creation of an Infrastructure Risk Guarantee Fund to crowd in private investment. Seven high-speed rail corridors have been proposed as growth connectors, while 20 national waterways will be operationalised over the next five years to promote greener logistics.

Support For SMEs, Textiles And Cities

The Budget proposed a ₹10,000 crore SME Growth Fund to nurture “Champion SMEs”, additional funding for the Self-Reliant India Fund, and schemes to modernise 200 legacy industrial clusters.

An integrated textile programme—including national fibre initiatives, mega textile parks and cluster modernisation—aims to boost exports and employment, particularly in traditional hubs.

Urban development will be driven through City Economic Regions, with ₹5,000 crore per region over five years, and incentives to encourage large municipal bond issuances.

On human capital, the government announced steps to bridge education and employment gaps, expand allied health institutions, establish regional medical hubs for medical tourism, and support creative industries under the “orange economy”.

Tourism and heritage also feature prominently, with 15 archaeological sites, including Adichanallur and Lothal, to be developed as experiential cultural destinations.

Major Tax Reforms Announced

A key highlight is the rollout of a new Income Tax Act from April 2026, aimed at simplifying compliance through redesigned rules and forms.

Personal tax relief measures include tax exemption on interest awarded by Motor Accident Claims Tribunals, rationalisation of TCS on overseas travel and remittances, and automated systems for lower or nil TDS certificates for small taxpayers.

The government also announced a major overhaul of penalties and prosecutions to reduce litigation, along with reforms to advance pricing agreements and safe harbour rules to support India’s IT services sector.

On capital markets, the Budget raised Securities Transaction Tax on futures and options, a move that triggered sharp market volatility on Budget Day.

On the indirect tax front, the Budget focused on tariff simplification, easing customs duties for critical minerals, clean energy inputs, electronics, aviation and nuclear power projects. Customs processes are set to move towards trust-based, technology-driven clearances, with AI-enabled risk assessment and a single digital window by FY26-end.

Fiscal Balance Maintained

Despite the scale of announcements, the Finance Minister reiterated the government’s commitment to fiscal discipline, with borrowing and deficit numbers signalling a calibrated approach to growth spending.

Overall, Budget 2026–27 signals a decisive push towards manufacturing-led growth, infrastructure expansion and tax simplification, while attempting to balance long-term structural reforms with macroeconomic stability.

‘Dangerous nostalgia’ is a threat to multilateralism, UN Deputy Chief Warns

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The United Nations Deputy Secretary-General has warned that the foundations of the international rules-based order are under increasing strain, urging countries to recommit to the principles of the UN Charter and strengthen global cooperation.

Speaking recently, Amina Mohammed described the UN’s founding document as a guiding framework for international relations and called on governments to defend multilateralism grounded in international law, solidarity and human dignity.

“The UN Charter is our moral compass,” she said, stressing that the world must renew its commitment to the values that underpin global cooperation.

Charter Principles Under Pressure

Mohammed pointed to UN resolutions affirming Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as longstanding support for a two-State solution between Israelis and Palestinians, as examples of the Charter’s principles being applied in practice.

However, she warned that the norms and legal foundations underlying such decisions are increasingly being challenged.

According to the Deputy Secretary-General, the erosion of these rules risks undermining the global system designed to prevent conflict and protect the sovereignty of nations.

Warning Over Erosion Of International Law

Mohammed cautioned that nostalgia for an era when powerful nations could bend rules to their advantage is threatening international cooperation.

She recalled remarks by UN Secretary-General António Guterres, who recently emphasised that the UN Charter cannot be treated as an “à la carte menu,” meaning countries cannot selectively follow international law only when it suits them.

The Deputy Secretary-General noted that smaller nations are often among the strongest defenders of the rules-based order because they understand how crucial international law is to protecting vulnerable states.

“If the rules do not protect the vulnerable, they protect no one,” she said.

Warning about the consequences of ignoring international norms, Mohammed said: “You either stand up for a rules-based order, or you pay the price of ignoring it. Yesterday the price was Venezuela, tomorrow it may be Greenland.”

Sustainable Development At Risk

Beyond geopolitical tensions, Mohammed warned that global progress on sustainable development is also under threat.

Rising geopolitical rivalry and economic disputes are jeopardising achievements made over decades, including reductions in poverty, improvements in maternal and child health and expanded access to education for girls.

Trade conflicts are restricting markets that once helped lift millions out of poverty, she said, while women’s rights in many parts of the world are facing renewed challenges.

She also highlighted a stark imbalance in global spending priorities. Military expenditure reached a record $2.7 trillion last year, while funding for development initiatives faces an estimated annual shortfall of $4.2 trillion.

Growing Inequality Highlighted

Mohammed also criticised the widening gap between the world’s richest and poorest populations.

She noted that while global wealth continues to grow, the benefits remain highly concentrated. The wealth of billionaires increased by roughly $2 trillion last year, while the poorest half of humanity controls only a tiny fraction of global wealth.

The Deputy Secretary-General pointed to recent international discussions on financing development as a pathway to address these inequalities. A UN conference held in Spain last year explored ways to create fiscal space for development, tackle the global debt crisis and reform international financial systems.

Call For UN Reform

Mohammed concluded by emphasising the need to modernise the United Nations itself to better respond to current global challenges.

The UN80 Initiative, a system-wide reform effort, aims to strengthen the organisation’s ability to deliver results despite limited resources and growing demands from member states.

She urged governments to support reforms that would allow the UN to operate more effectively and remain central to international cooperation.

“We need to reset the UN to preserve multilateralism,” Mohammed said, calling on countries to help build a stronger organisation capable of fulfilling the promise of the UN Charter in today’s complex global environment.

NSE Chief Offers Prayers At Tirupati Ahead of IPO

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Ashishkumar Chauhan, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of the National Stock Exchange, on Sunday visited Tirupati with his family and offered prayers at the Lord Venkateshwara temple, seeking blessings for the exchange, its members, shareholders and the country.

Speaking after the visit, Chauhan said the darshan took place early in the morning and described the experience as peaceful and deeply fulfilling. He noted that prayers were offered for the well-being of NSE and for the broader growth of the nation.

“Today we had a great darshan in the early morning at Tirupati. We took blessings for NSE, for all our members, all our shareholders and for the country,” Chauhan said, adding that the visit had been planned well in advance.

The temple visit coincided with a key regulatory signal for the exchange. On Saturday, the Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Board of India indicated that NSE is likely to receive approval for its long-pending initial public offering within the month. The remarks were made by SEBI Chairman Tuhin Kanta Pandey.

Chauhan said the timing felt particularly auspicious, as the announcement became public just as he arrived in the temple town. He described it as a positive omen and a blessing.

“When we arrived in Tirupati, the announcement was made. We see it as a good omen and God’s blessing that this development has come,” he said. He added that the darshan would remain a memorable moment, especially given the significance of the period for the exchange.

The visit comes as market participants closely track regulatory progress on NSE’s proposed IPO, which is expected to be one of the largest and most consequential listings in India’s capital markets, marking a milestone both for the exchange and the broader financial ecosystem.

Signature Global’s Q3 Sales Bookings Fall 27% Despite Festive-Season Demand

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Gurugram-based real estate developer Signature Global reported a sharp year-on-year decline in sales bookings for the October–December quarter, a period typically marked by robust housing demand due to the festive season.

In a regulatory filing on Sunday, the company said sales bookings fell 27 per cent to ₹2,020 crore in the December quarter, compared with ₹2,770 crore in the corresponding period of the previous financial year. The number of housing units sold during the quarter plunged to 408, from 1,518 units a year earlier.

Measured by area, sales bookings declined to 1.44 million sq ft, down from 2.49 million sq ft in the year-ago quarter.

The October–December period is traditionally considered one of the strongest quarters for residential real estate sales, driven by festival-related buying. However, the company did not spell out any specific reason for the slowdown in its exchange filing.

Rolls Out New Projects

Industry observers point to the timing of new launches as a possible factor. Signature Global rolled out a major housing project on the Dwarka Expressway only toward the end of December, which may have curtailed sales momentum during the quarter.

For the first nine months of the current financial year, the company’s sales bookings declined 23 per cent to ₹6,680 crore, from ₹8,670 crore in the same period last year. Unit sales during this period also more than halved to 1,746 units, compared with 3,539 units a year ago.

Commenting on the performance, Chairman Pradeep Kumar Aggarwal said the company had delivered a healthy showing in the first nine months of FY26, supported by steady demand across its key micro-markets. He added that the launch of the wellness-focused premium project, Sarvam at DXP Estate on the Dwarka Expressway, had received an encouraging response, underlining evolving buyer preferences.

Signature Global had posted sales bookings of ₹10,290 crore in the previous financial year, ranking it as the fifth-largest listed real estate developer by sales. For the current 2025–26 fiscal, the company has guided for sales bookings of ₹12,500 crore, implying that it will need to clock close to ₹6,000 crore in sales in the ongoing quarter to meet its annual target.

GST 2.0 Rollout Leaves Key Categories Unchanged Despite Major Rate Overhaul

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The Goods and Services Tax (GST) 2.0 regime, set to come into force on September 22, 2025, will bring sweeping changes to India’s indirect tax system, but several key items will remain untouched.

The 56th GST Council meeting, chaired by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, approved a restructuring of the tax slabs by merging the 12% and 28% brackets into two simplified rates of 5% and 18%. A new 40% de-merit slab has been created for luxury and sin goods, while essentials such as food staples will continue at a nil (0%) rate.

However, certain categories have been deliberately kept out of the reform. Precious metals such as gold, silver, and jewelry remain taxed at 3%, while items already aligned with the new structure, such as fresh produce at 0% and mobile phones at 18%, are unchanged. Sin goods like cigarettes, bidis, and chewing tobacco will continue under the existing 28% plus compensation cess until state borrowing obligations are cleared, delaying their eventual shift to 40%.

Essentials Hold Steady
Unpacked grains, milk, eggs, fruits, vegetables, salt, and sanitary napkins will continue to be exempt. “Maintaining the 0% slab for daily-use essentials ensures no additional burden is placed on lower-income households,” an official said, citing affordability as a key reason for stability.

Industry bodies have broadly welcomed the move. The Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) described GST 2.0 as “a long-awaited simplification,” while the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) noted that unchanged rates on electronics and telecom services could limit the broader consumption stimulus.

Key Unchanged Items Under GST 2.0

Slab Item/Category Old Rate (%) New Rate (%)
0% Fresh fruits, vegetables, unpacked grains, milk, eggs, salt, sanitary napkins 0 0
3% Gold, silver, precious stones, jewelry 3 3
5% Sugar, tea, coffee (unpackaged), edible oils, spices (unpackaged), electric vehicles 5 5
18% Mobile phones, laptops, liquid handwashes, telecom services, banking services, hotel rooms above ₹7,500/night 18 18
28% + Cess Cigarettes, bidis, chewing tobacco, pan masala 28 + Cess 28 + Cess

Experts say the unchanged slabs reflect the government’s balancing act. While over 375 items are set to become cheaper from Monday, holding certain categories steady protects tax revenues. “This is a pragmatic approach. It brings relief for households without undermining state finances,” said a tax policy analyst.

Retailers expect the steady rates to keep prices predictable during the festive season. While reduced categories may drive consumer spending, unchanged rates on sin goods and gadgets ensure revenue streams remain intact.

However, billed as a “Diwali gift” for the middle class, GST 2.0 offers simplification and relief, even as debates continue over deferred hikes on tobacco and other de-merit products.

Over 7 Crore ITRs Filed As Deadline Ends Mid-Night; I-T Dept Debunks Extension, Offers 24×7 Help

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India’s Income Tax Department on Monday announced that over seven crore income tax returns (ITRs) have been filed for the Assessment Year 2025-26, as the deadline of September 15 drew to a close. Officials described the surge in filings as a reflection of growing compliance and the expanding taxpayer base.

In a post on X, the department thanked citizens and tax professionals for helping it reach the milestone. “More than 7 crore ITRs have been filed so far and still counting. We extend our gratitude to taxpayers and tax professionals for helping us reach this milestone, and urge all those who haven’t filed ITR for AY 2025-26, to file their ITR,” the department said.

To ease the pressure of last-minute submissions, the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) said its helpdesk is functional round-the-clock, providing assistance through calls, live chats, WebEx sessions and social media handles. “Our helpdesk is functioning on a 24×7 basis, and we are providing support,” the post added.

Department Dismisses Extension Buzz

The strong advisory came a day after rumours circulated online suggesting the deadline had been extended to September 30. The department was quick to dismiss the reports. “A fake news is in circulation stating that the due of filing ITRs (originally due on 31.07.2025, and extended to 15.09.2025) has been further extended to 30.09.2025. The due date for filing ITRs remains 15.09.2025. Taxpayers are advised to rely only on official @IncomeTaxIndia updates,” it clarified.

The original due date of July 31 had been pushed to September 15 for non-audit cases after revisions in ITR forms and system upgrades earlier this year. The current deadline, the department underlined, would not be moved further.

Heavy Traffic, Glitches Reported

While officials celebrated record compliance, practitioners flagged issues of portal slowdowns as lakhs rushed to meet the deadline. Tax consultants reported intermittent delays, though filings eventually went through. Authorities acknowledged the heavier-than-usual traffic but stressed that the portal remained operational, supplemented by helpdesk support.

“Every September, the system faces a surge. This year is no different, though overall, the portal is holding up better than previous cycles,” said a Delhi-based tax advisor.

Missing Deadline Comes at a Cost

Experts reminded taxpayers that failure to file on time could prove expensive. Under Section 234F of the Income Tax Act, late filers may have to pay a penalty, ₹1,000 for incomes up to ₹5 lakh and ₹5,000 for higher incomes. In addition, delayed returns attract interest on unpaid taxes and may bar taxpayers from carrying forward certain losses.

“Even if you are unable to finalise every detail, it is wiser to file a return now and revise later. Waiting for an extension that never comes can lead to unnecessary penalties,” warned another practitioner.

The Income Tax Department echoed that view, urging taxpayers to complete the process without delay. Officials noted that the sharp rise in filings reflects improved compliance, digitisation and a growing culture of timely reporting.

Compliance Rising

From fewer than six crore returns a few years ago to more than seven crore this year, India’s tax base is expanding steadily. Analysts say rising awareness, stricter enforcement and smoother digital systems are driving the numbers. Still, the department’s challenge is to keep its infrastructure resilient enough to handle the annual last-minute rush.

As the clock ticks down to the midnight deadline, millions of taxpayers are expected to complete their filings. The Department has once again cautioned citizens to rely only on official notifications and avoid misinformation circulating on social media.

The achievement of crossing 7 crore filings before the cut-off has been hailed as a sign of deepening compliance culture in India’s economy. With the ITR deadline fixed at September 15 and no further extension on the cards, the message from the government is clear: timely filing is not optional but essential.

‘We Don’t Take Part In Wars’: China Reacts Sharply After Trump’s NATO Tariff Call

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China has strongly rejected US President Donald Trump’s proposal that NATO members impose steep tariffs on Beijing, saying such measures would only worsen global tensions.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi made the remarks on Saturday during a press conference in Ljubljana, Slovenia, following talks with Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Tanja Fajon. His comments came just hours after Trump suggested NATO should consider tariffs of 50–100 per cent on Chinese goods until the war in Ukraine ends.

“China does not participate in or plan wars, and what China does is to encourage peace talks and promote political settlement of hotspot issues through dialogue,” Wang was quoted as saying by China Daily.

Wang argued that sanctions and tariffs would not resolve crises but only complicate them further. “China and Europe should be friends rather than rivals, and should cooperate rather than confront each other,” he said. “Making the right choices amid the greatest changes in a century demonstrates the responsibilities that both sides should fulfill towards history and the people.”

Wang also stressed that Beijing remains committed to multilateralism and the principles of the UN Charter, adding that the current international situation was defined by “intertwined chaos and continuous conflicts.”

Ukraine war with Russia

Trump, in a post on his Truth Social platform, had said NATO should take collective action on tariffs: “I believe that this, plus NATO, as a group, placing 50 per cent to 100 per cent TARIFFS ON CHINA, to be fully withdrawn after the WAR with Russia and Ukraine is ended, will also be of great help in ENDING this deadly, but RIDICULOUS, WAR.”

The former president claimed China maintains “a strong control, and even grip, over Russia,” suggesting punitive tariffs would weaken Beijing’s leverage over Moscow.

Trump’s proposal is unusual because NATO is a military alliance with no mandate on trade issues. Analysts say his idea of collective tariffs under NATO reflects a broadening of security tools into the economic sphere.

Earlier this month, Trump had accused Chinese President Xi Jinping of “conspiring against” the United States after Beijing held its largest-ever military parade on September 3, attended by Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. However, in a subsequent remark, Trump said his personal relationship with Xi was still “very good,” underscoring his oscillating stance towards Beijing.

China’s Consistent Refrain on Tariffs

Wang Yi’s latest remarks echo Beijing’s long-standing response to US tariff threats. Since the onset of Trump’s trade war in 2018, China has consistently positioned itself as a supporter of global free trade and multilateral cooperation, while rejecting what it calls Washington’s “unilateral protectionism.”

During earlier rounds of tariffs on Chinese goods, Beijing responded with targeted counter-tariffs but avoided escalating rhetoric, often reiterating that dialogue and mutual respect should guide US-China relations. For instance, in 2019 when Trump raised duties on $200 billion worth of imports, Chinese officials said the “only way forward is cooperation, not confrontation,” while rolling out measured relief for domestic exporters.

China’s playbook has also involved appealing to Europe and other global partners. Wang’s emphasis in Ljubljana that “China and Europe should be friends rather than rivals” reflects Beijing’s strategy of preventing Washington from rallying its allies into a united front against China. This mirrors past efforts when Beijing sought closer ties with the EU even as US tariffs intensified.

The rhetoric of “peace talks” and “multilateralism” serves a dual purpose: projecting China as a responsible power amid global instability, and contrasting Beijing’s image with Washington’s protectionist posture. At the same time, China has been careful not to openly distance itself from Russia, maintaining energy imports and high-level diplomacy while rejecting suggestions that it is actively fueling the war in Ukraine.

If NATO were to adopt Trump’s proposed tariff scheme, unlikely though it may be, China would almost certainly respond with both diplomatic protests and retaliatory economic measures, just as it did during the first trade war. For now, Wang Yi’s remarks suggest Beijing will continue its balancing act: opposing punitive measures, promoting dialogue, and seeking to court European partners wary of being drawn into Washington’s hardening stance.

Gold Nears Record Highs of ₹1.13 Lakh: Check Where Will It Be By Year-End

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Gold prices are once again dominating global headlines. Hovering near all-time highs, the yellow metal has emerged as one of the most closely watched assets this September, reflecting a mix of investor anxiety, central bank policies, and domestic demand surges in India ahead of the festive season. From Wall Street to Chandni Chowk, gold’s rally is shaping markets and household budgets alike.

The U.S. Federal Reserve remains the single most important influence on gold’s trajectory. Global spot prices touched US$3,673.95 per ounce earlier this week, just shy of fresh records, before consolidating around US$3,648–3,650. Weakness in the U.S. labor market, including higher jobless claims and downward revisions in non-farm payrolls, has reinforced expectations that the Fed could cut rates in its next policy meetings.

For gold investors, this matters because lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset like bullion. A weaker U.S. dollar also typically drives up international gold demand. As a result, bullion is increasingly seen as a hedge against both financial uncertainty and inflationary risks that remain sticky across major economies.

India’s Record-High Prices

In India, the world’s second-largest consumer of gold after China, the impact is immediate. Domestic gold prices have crossed ₹1,09,000 per 10 grams in key markets, with Delhi witnessing trades as high as ₹1,13,100 per 10 grams. Prices in Mumbai, Chennai, Kolkata, and Bengaluru are only marginally lower, averaging around ₹11,050–11,070 per gram for 24-carat gold. Even 22-carat gold, traditionally preferred for jewellery, now costs over ₹10,100 per gram.

The surge is pinching consumers but also fueling speculative interest. Jewellers report that buyers are cautious about bulk purchases, yet cultural factors, particularly weddings and festivals, ensure that demand does not collapse. Many households continue to view gold as both ornament and insurance, a long-standing tradition that resists market cycles.

Drivers Of The Rally

The current gold rally rests on five pillars:

  1. Global Monetary Policy: Expectations of Fed rate cuts are the biggest driver, but central banks worldwide are also increasing their gold reserves, adding to demand.

  2. Geopolitical Tensions: Uncertainty in regions from Eastern Europe to East Asia has pushed investors toward safe-haven assets.

  3. Inflationary Concerns: While consumer inflation in the U.S. and Europe has moderated, it remains above target in many regions, preserving gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge.

  4. Weaker Dollar: Any slide in the U.S. currency makes gold more affordable for buyers in other countries, reinforcing global flows.

  5. Indian Festive Demand: The upcoming Navratri, Dhanteras, and wedding season ensures a domestic consumption boost, regardless of price levels.

Market Volatility And Risks

Despite the bullish undertone, analysts caution that volatility is inevitable. Profit-taking is evident whenever gold hits a new high. The key risk lies in inflation cooling faster than expected. If price pressures ease and the Fed slows or limits its rate cuts, gold could lose momentum. A stronger dollar in such a scenario would likely pull bullion back to the US$3,450–3,500 per ounce range.

Domestically, government policy also poses a risk. Import duties on gold remain steep, and any further tweaks by New Delhi to curb imports could alter pricing dynamics. The rupee’s performance against the dollar will also play a role in determining how global prices translate into domestic rates.

India’s listed jewellers have reacted swiftly to soaring gold prices. Shares of Titan, Kalyan Jewellers, and Senco Gold have seen heightened trading volumes. While high prices can dampen near-term consumer purchases, the larger narrative is supportive for organised retail chains. Analysts argue that customers are likely to prefer branded outlets that offer exchange schemes, certified quality, and buy-back assurances in times of price volatility.

Scenario-Based Year-End Forecast

Looking ahead, analysts outline three possible scenarios for gold by December 2025:

  1. Aggressive Fed Rate Cuts
    If the Fed slashes rates by 50–75 basis points before year-end, gold could easily breach US$3,750–3,800 per ounce. In India, this translates to ₹1,15,000–1,18,000 per 10 grams, depending on rupee levels and duties.

  2. Gradual Easing
    A modest 25-basis-point cut or a more cautious Fed stance would keep gold range-bound. Spot prices may hover between US$3,600–3,700 per ounce, with Indian rates consolidating in the ₹1,09,000–1,13,000 per 10 grams range.

  3. Cooling Inflation
    If inflation drops sharply, easing the need for aggressive cuts, gold could retreat to US$3,450–3,500 per ounce. Domestic prices could slide back to ₹1,03,000–1,05,000 per 10 grams.

Current Gold Prices In Major Indian Cities

As of mid-September 2025, here are the prevailing gold rates across five major Indian metros:

  • Delhi: ~₹11,130 (24-carat per gram), ~₹10,205 (22-carat), ~₹8,352 (18-carat)

  • Mumbai: ~₹11,050–11,060 (24-carat), ~₹10,130–10,145 (22-carat), ~₹8,280–8,300 (18-carat)

  • Chennai: ~₹11,070 (24-carat), ~₹10,150 (22-carat), ~₹8,400 (18-carat)

  • Kolkata: ~₹11,051 (24-carat), ~₹10,130 (22-carat), ~₹8,288 (18-carat)

  • Bengaluru: ~₹11,051 (24-carat), ~₹10,130 (22-carat), ~₹8,288 (18-carat)

These figures underline the sharp escalation in costs across the board. For perspective, gold was trading below ₹60,000 per 10 grams barely two years ago.

For global and Indian investors alike, the lesson is clear: chasing highs is risky, but ignoring gold altogether could prove costly in uncertain times. Market experts recommend staggered buying, accumulating during pullbacks rather than entering at peaks.

In fact, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and sovereign gold bonds provide safer avenues for exposure without the storage and purity concerns of physical bullion.

Why Speculative Fever Always Catches Up

Gold’s surge reflects more than speculative fever. It embodies anxiety about the global economy, inflation, and geopolitical tensions, while also highlighting India’s enduring cultural affinity for the metal.

Yet, the rally’s sustainability rests on forces beyond any single market’s control. The U.S. Fed’s choices, global inflation trends, and currency shifts will dictate whether 2025 ends with gold at dazzling new records or retreating from its highs.

For now, one thing is certain: gold is once again reminding the world why it has been the ultimate store of value for centuries.

Mittal’s Hike Shuts Down After India’s Real-Money Gaming Ban; Decade-Long Journey Over

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Hike, once touted as India’s homegrown rival to WhatsApp and later a promising player in online gaming, has officially shut down after the Indian government imposed a ban on real-money gaming.

Founder and CEO Kavin Bharti Mittal confirmed the closure in a note shared on Substack, calling it “a difficult decision” made after discussions with investors and employees. “Scaling globally would require a full recap, a reset that is not the best use of capital or time,” he wrote, acknowledging that regulatory hurdles in India had curtailed the company’s ambitions.

Launched in 2016 as a messaging platform, Hike had repositioned itself in 2021 as a gaming venture with its platform Rush. Featuring 14 mobile titles, Rush integrated Web3 elements such as play-to-earn mechanics and digital asset ownership. The app grew rapidly, boasting more than 10 million users, $500 million in gross revenue, and nearly $480 million in annual winnings distributed to players.

Ban on Online Gaming

Despite the traction, India’s blanket ban on real-money gaming effectively shut off Hike’s largest market. Mittal noted that while the company’s U.S. operations launched nine months ago were “showing strong growth,” the inability to build scale at home made global expansion unviable.

At its peak, Hike employed about 100 people across India, the U.S., Dubai, and Singapore, organized into what Mittal described as lean, high-performance “SWAT teams.” The venture had backing from some of the world’s biggest investors, including SoftBank, Tencent, Tiger Global, Bharti, Foxconn, Jump Crypto, Tribe Capital, Republic, and Polygon. Individual investors such as Rajeev Misra, Elad Gil, and Zynga founder Mark Pincus had also placed bets on the company.

The shutdown brings an abrupt end to a startup that once symbolized India’s ambition to build global internet platforms, from social messaging to Web3 gaming. Moreover, the abrupt closure of Hike underscores a hard truth for India’s digital economy ahead such as scale, innovation, and marquee investors are no match for abrupt regulatory interventions. Kavin Bharti Mittal’s decision to shut down the once-celebrated startup reveals how vulnerable even well-backed ventures remain in sectors that lack policy clarity.

Platform Rush Experiment

Hike’s trajectory reflects both promise and pitfalls. From its early days as a homegrown rival to WhatsApp, the company successfully reinvented itself by riding India’s booming mobile gaming wave. Its platform, Rush, was no small experiment: it blended traditional casual games with Web3 features, drew over 10 million users, and claimed $500 million in gross revenues. Few Indian consumer internet firms outside e-commerce had achieved such traction in a short span. Yet, one regulatory stroke effectively erased its biggest market.

Above all, the challenge lies in the timing. Mittal argued that while Hike’s U.S. operations were beginning to show growth, building a truly global platform required strong domestic roots. India was intended to provide that base. Instead, the blanket ban on real-money gaming turned a growth story into a cautionary tale. This regulatory unpredictability does not just deter entrepreneurs, it shakes investor confidence in India’s broader digital ecosystem.

The investor roster behind Hike, SoftBank, Tencent, Tiger Global, Polygon, and others, signals that global capital is eager to back Indian startups. But sudden rule changes, without phased implementation or alternative frameworks, risk driving talent and capital abroad. The shutdown also raises questions about India’s ability to nurture world-class consumer internet products, even as the government pushes for “Digital India” and startup-led growth.

Concerns of Addiction Leads to Shutdowns

At the same time, the government cannot remain mute to concerns of addiction over inevitable financial risk without stifling gaming sector. innovation. In fact, the ban on real-money gaming in India has triggered a wave of shutdowns and exits across the country’s once-thriving gaming startup ecosystem. Hike, the messaging-app-turned-gaming company, was the first high-profile casualty, but several others have quickly followed.

Dream Sports, parent of fantasy sports giant Dream11, has begun winding down its real-money gaming divisions. The company has suspended its “cash contests” on platforms like Dream Picks and Dream Play, assuring users that deposits and winnings remain safe.

Mobile Premier League (MPL), another major player in India’s online gaming sector, also suspended deposits and halted its real-money operations. The company has reportedly laid off nearly 60% of its India workforce, underscoring the severity of the regulatory shock.

PokerBaazi, operated by Moonshine (a Nazara Technologies subsidiary), has also ceased offering real-money poker games. While Nazara continues to evaluate the regulatory environment, its gaming subsidiary has been forced to hit pause on its most lucrative business line.

Other firms, including Zupee, Probo, Gameskraft, and WinZO, have likewise suspended or shut down their real-money offerings. Zupee has retained its free-to-play titles, while Gameskraft’s rummy platforms have disabled all “add cash” features. Probo too has discontinued real-money segments to comply with the new rules.

RummyCulture, one of India’s largest online rummy brands, has also closed its cash-game services, further shrinking the space for real-money card-based gaming.

Together, these shutdowns highlight the scale of disruption caused by the new legislation. Startups that collectively served tens of millions of users and attracted billions of dollars in global investment have been forced to exit their primary business overnight.

Indian Market Makes Historic Recovery, Investors Gain Rs 10.9 Lakh Crore

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In an unprecedented turn of events, the Indian stock market made a remarkable recovery on Tuesday, April 15, as investors regained a colossal Rs 10.9 lakh crore in a single day. This recovery effectively wiped out the losses incurred following the US tariff shock on April 2, marking a significant milestone in the financial sector.

The Sensex, a benchmark index of the Bombay Stock Exchange, witnessed a surge of over 1,570 points, while the Nifty, the National Stock Exchange’s benchmark index, soared past the 22,300 mark. This marked one of the most substantial gains in recent months, reflecting a robust and resilient market.

The Broad-Based Recovery and Its Drivers

This recovery was not limited to a specific sector or a handful of stocks. Instead, it was broad-based, encompassing various sectors and indices. The driving force behind this rally was a combination of strong investor sentiment, positive global cues, and domestic optimism. The primary catalyst for this rally was a significant update on US trade policy.

The US administration announced a 90-day delay in tariffs for most countries, with the notable exception of China. This announcement served to calm investor nerves and reignite hopes for India’s position in global supply chains.

Financial stocks, due to their heavy weightage in the indices, led the charge, rising over 2 per cent. The midcap and smallcap indices, which had been underperforming recently, also saw a strong recovery, each rising by around 3 per cent. Market experts noted that domestic institutional investors turned aggressive buyers on Tuesday, further supporting the upward momentum. Asian markets were also firm, supported by a weaker US dollar and stable bond yields, giving Indian markets an additional boost as they reopened after an extended weekend.

India’s Position Amid Tariff War

India’s strong macroeconomic fundamentals continue to attract investor interest, apart from global cues. With robust domestic demand and limited direct exposure to US-China tensions, India is increasingly seen as a stable bet amid global uncertainties, market experts noted. While data on foreign institutional investor flows is yet to be released, early signs point to strong buying activity.

“Markets are adjusting the new reality of daily Trump twists and turns,” said Vikas Gupta, CEO and Chief Investment Strategist at OmniScience Capital. He added that sometimes when tariffs look like they have been temporarily removed, the markets will react positively, when something unexpected happens they will react negatively.

Surprise Twist After 6-Year Hunt, Fugitive Tycoon Mehul Choksi Arrested in Belgium

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In a dramatic turn of events that has stunned both investigators and the public, fugitive diamond trader Mehul Choksi—accused in India’s largest-ever bank fraud case—has been arrested in Belgium after years on the run. The unexpected arrest has rekindled hopes for justice in the ₹13,500 crore Punjab National Bank (PNB) scam that rocked the country’s financial system in 2018.

Choksi, who had been hiding in Antigua and Barbuda since fleeing India, was reportedly detained in Belgium on the basis of a Red Corner Notice issued by Interpol at India’s request. The development comes after years of diplomatic and legal wrangling, and amid fears that the 64-year-old might never be brought back to face trial.

The timing and location of the arrest have added a layer of intrigue. While Indian authorities were focused on legal proceedings in the Caribbean, Choksi’s sudden appearance in Belgium has raised eyebrows. “This arrest was completely unexpected,” said a senior official from the Enforcement Directorate, which has been pursuing Choksi under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act.

Adding a poignant twist to the saga is the voice of Hariprasad SV, the whistleblower who first flagged irregularities in PNB’s credit system back in 2013. Speaking to NDTV after Choksi’s arrest, Hariprasad said: “The important thing is not the arrest, the important thing is the recovery of money.” His statement underlines the enduring human cost of white-collar crimes—thousands of lives impacted, reputations destroyed, and public trust shaken.

In 2018, Indian authorities revealed that Choksi and his nephew Nirav Modi had allegedly orchestrated a massive fraud using fake Letters of Undertaking issued by complicit PNB officials. The scam led to a massive clean-up in the banking sector and exposed gaping loopholes in financial oversight.

The PNB fraud not only destabilised one of India’s oldest banks, but also sent shockwaves through the global business community, given Choksi’s once-respectable stature as the owner of the Gitanjali Group and a well-known name in high-end jewellery circles.

Though Choksi repeatedly claimed he was being politically persecuted, Indian agencies pressed ahead, revoking his passport and mounting pressure through international legal channels. His Antigua citizenship further complicated matters, and in a dramatic episode in 2021, Choksi alleged he was abducted from the island nation—a claim that was later debunked by local courts.

What makes this arrest in Belgium even more riveting is the sheer unpredictability of it. Choksi had dropped out of the public eye, with his lawyers challenging extradition attempts on health and human rights grounds. There was growing concern that he might successfully outmaneuver the Indian legal system altogether.

With his arrest, India has renewed its extradition efforts. Sources say the Ministry of External Affairs has already begun formal communication with Belgian authorities. If successful, Choksi could finally face trial in India alongside Nirav Modi, who remains in a UK prison contesting his own extradition.

For the families of affected bank employees, investors, and taxpayers, this arrest is more than just a legal milestone. It is a glimmer of accountability. As Hariprasad poignantly noted, “People who loot public money should not be allowed to go scot-free.”

Shares of US chipmakers come under pressure after China retaliates with tariff hikes

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U.S. markets closed lower Friday after China announced steep tariff hikes on American goods, targeting semiconductors manufactured in the U.S. Texas Instruments fell 6.8%, Intel dropped 3.7%, and GlobalFoundries declined 2.4% amid fears of disrupted trade flows.

Shares of Nvidia and TSMC rose, buoyed by their offshore manufacturing. Analysts warn of escalating uncertainty in the sector, with sentiment now tightly linked to any progress on U.S.-China trade negotiations.

Shares of U.S. chipmakers with domestic manufacturing operations came under sharp pressure on Friday after China announced a steep escalation in tariffs on American goods, stoking fresh concerns over the ongoing trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies.

Beijing said it will raise duties on U.S. imports from 84% to 125%, a move widely interpreted as a direct response to Washington’s earlier tariff measures. The China Semiconductor Industry Association clarified that the new customs rules would assess origin based on where chips are manufactured rather than the home country of the parent company—exposing firms with U.S.-based fabs to additional vulnerability.

Texas Instruments Inc. and Intel Corp. were among the hardest hit, with shares declining 6.8% and 3.7%, respectively. GlobalFoundries Inc. dropped 2.4%, while other chipmakers with manufacturing facilities in the U.S., including Analog Devices Inc. and Microchip Technology Inc., also traded lower. Skyworks Solutions Inc. and Qorvo Inc., both key suppliers to Apple Inc., were not spared from the selloff.

“This is an incredibly uncertain time for chipmakers, and this is certainly not going to help,” Wayne Kaufman, chief market analyst at Phoenix Financial Services told Bloomberg. “Anything that hurts semis more than they’ve already been hit is bad for the general market.”

Not all chipmakers were negatively affected. The tariffs exclude companies that design semiconductors but do not manufacture them domestically. As a result, Nvidia Corp. rose 2.2%, while U.S.-listed shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. gained 3.3%. Analysts noted this divergence, highlighting the potential for non-fabricating players to benefit from redirected demand and capacity.

Experts believe that the market may be overreacting in the case of Texas Instruments, pointing to the company’s long-standing advantages in product quality, breadth, cost structure, and customer support. Though TI’s share in China could erode somewhat, TI benefits from product performance would be difficult for Chinese OEMs to ignore altogether, they point out.

Wall Street’s Magnificent Seven Wipe Out $2 Trillion in Market Value

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The elite group of U.S. tech megacaps, popularly dubbed the “Magnificent Seven,” has witnessed a sharp $2 trillion erosion in market value since April 2, following renewed trade tensions triggered by President Donald Trump’s announcement of sweeping reciprocal tariffs on nearly all trading partners. The announcement sent shockwaves through global equity markets, igniting a broad selloff across the tech-heavy Nasdaq and shaking investor sentiment.

However, a partial recovery was seen this week after Trump announced a 90-day pause on the proposed tariffs — excluding China — providing temporary relief to a market already under strain from elevated interest rates and weak earnings expectations. The move helped the group regain over $1.5 trillion in value in just a few trading sessions. Still, the recent bounce has not fully reversed the broader decline that began earlier this year.

Despite the rebound, volatility remains elevated. Nvidia emerged as the standout performer, surging nearly 25 percent in the past five trading sessions alone, fueled by renewed investor optimism around artificial intelligence infrastructure and rising global demand for AI chips. The company, which gained over 183 percent in 2024, continues to command strong interest despite a year-to-date correction of around 20 percent, partly driven by competition from China’s DeepSeek.

Tesla, by contrast, has become the biggest laggard within the group. Its stock has fallen 34 percent since the start of the year, battered by disappointing delivery numbers, ongoing price cuts, and concerns over slowing EV demand. While the stock has rebounded 13 percent in the past five days, it remains deeply in the red, raising fresh questions about the company’s near-term outlook and market positioning.

Other members of the group, including Apple, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Amazon, and Microsoft, posted gains this week in the range of 9 to 22 percent. Yet many remain underwater for the year. Apple has lost nearly 19 percent year-to-date, while Meta is down 10 percent despite a strong five-day rally. Microsoft, which saw an 11 percent gain this week, is still down roughly 7 percent for the year. Alphabet reiterated plans to invest $75 billion into data center expansion, while Microsoft is set to exceed $80 billion in infrastructure spending — both signaling long-term confidence in AI and cloud technologies.

The current pause in tariffs has been welcomed by global markets. Equity indices in the U.S., Europe, and Asia posted broad gains this week, with the Nasdaq jumping 12 percent in a single session — its strongest one-day rally since October 2008. Analysts, however, warn that the 90-day window could be merely a temporary reprieve unless meaningful progress is made on trade negotiations. Tariffs on Chinese imports have been raised to 125 percent, keeping geopolitical risk firmly in the picture.

With macroeconomic uncertainty persisting and tech valuations still elevated, institutional investors are likely to remain cautious. While the “Magnificent Seven” continue to dominate the technology and innovation landscape, their vulnerability to policy shocks, competition, and shifting demand is once again in focus. The coming weeks will test whether the recent recovery has legs or if another wave of selling is on the horizon.

US Semiconductor Tariffs: India Faces Limited Immediate Impact

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The U.S. decision to impose tariffs on semiconductors is unlikely to significantly impact India in the short term, as the country is not a major chip exporter to the U.S., industry experts said Thursday.

With India already imposing zero import duties on semiconductors, the country faces no immediate trade retaliation concerns, said Ashok Chandak, president of the India Electronics and Semiconductor Association (IESA).

Most of India’s upcoming semiconductor manufacturing and assembly facilities cater to global brands, and its growing domestic demand will be met primarily through local production.

In the long run, Indian chipmakers are expected to remain competitive, as the U.S. tariff applies uniformly to all exporting nations, Chandak noted.

The Trump administration’s decision to impose tariffs of 25% or more is expected to reshape the global semiconductor industry, affecting costs, supply chains, and innovation.

The new tariffs will significantly increase the cost of chips imported into the U.S., particularly from dominant manufacturing hubs like Taiwan, South Korea, and China. These additional costs will likely be passed on to consumers, driving up prices for smartphones, laptops, electric vehicles, and industrial electronics.

Tech giants such as Apple, NVIDIA, and Tesla could see rising production costs, potentially squeezing profit margins or forcing them to raise consumer prices, according to IESA.

To mitigate risks, companies may explore alternative supply chains or invest more in domestic chip production. However, semiconductor fabrication plants are among the most capital-intensive projects, requiring $10 billion to $25 billion per site.

“Companies must weigh multiple factors before making investment decisions, including workforce availability, tax policies, regulatory frameworks, and environmental considerations,” IESA stated.

Trump Warns Zelensky: Ukraine War Could End Without Him

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NEW YORK, Feb. 20 — The war of words between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky escalated Wednesday as Trump suggested Ukraine could be sidelined in negotiations to end the war with Russia.

“Zelensky better move fast or he’s not going to have a country left,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, claiming that only his administration could successfully broker peace with Russia.

The warning came after Zelensky criticized the U.S. and Russia for holding negotiations in Riyadh without Ukrainian representation. He insisted that Ukraine would not accept a peace deal reached without its direct involvement.

Zelensky fired back, accusing Trump of “living in a web of disinformation.” Trump, in turn, labeled Zelensky a “dictator without elections.”

With Russia occupying roughly 20% of Ukraine’s territory and Ukraine making only minor territorial gains, a negotiated peace deal is unlikely to restore all of Ukraine’s pre-war borders.

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth suggested that reverting to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders—including Crimea—was unrealistic and ruled out NATO membership for Ukraine in any foreseeable peace agreement.

Trump previously suggested Ukraine provoked the war—despite Russia’s 2022 invasion. His “dictator” remark references Ukraine’s decision to postpone elections due to the war, extending Zelensky’s term beyond its scheduled end.

As the primary financier of Ukraine’s defense, Trump appears to believe he could unilaterally pressure Kyiv into accepting peace terms negotiated with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

On Tuesday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met in Riyadh for more than four hours to discuss an end to the war. Both sides reported progress, with Lavrov calling the talks “useful” and Rubio indicating Russia was open to serious negotiations.

One key development was an agreement to restore U.S. and Russian embassies to full operational status after years of reduced diplomatic presence.

Trump also lashed out at European nations for not matching U.S. financial support for Ukraine. “Zelensky talked the United States into spending $350 billion on a war that couldn’t be won,” he wrote, arguing that European nations should contribute equally.

 

‘Buy China – Sell India’? Despite Challenges, FIIs Pushing A Market Shift

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At first glance, the global financial landscape is undergoing a significant shift, with FIIs increasingly diluting their share in Indian stocks and turning their attention towards the Chinese market. This trend, often referred to as the ‘Buy China – Sell India’ trade, is not a distant possibility for FIIs. The primary reason behind this shift is the perceived greener pastures in the Chinese stock market compared to the frothy valuations of Indian markets.

Over the last two weeks, Shanghai’s stock market has rallied close to 30% from its September lows, following the Chinese government’s all-out effort to revive economic growth. This is a stark contrast to the situation a few weeks back when multinational firms were pulling out money from China at a record pace, and global economists were trimming their forecasts for China’s economic growth.

However, the ground realities of the Chinese economy have not changed. The country’s real problems range from half-built houses to bad debts. The government is widely believed to be forging data and suppressing sensitive economic facts. Over the past few years, China’s monetary stimuli have become political rather than economic decisions.

China’s Economic Challenges and Investor Capital

This has led to a growing mistrust of information about China, making the allocation of capital in the country very difficult. China’s workforce is shrinking, and manufacturing productivity is dwindling. The country needs to pivot away from cheap credit and construction to more innovative industries. That is why investor capital is pouring into electric vehicles, semiconductors, and AI-led technologies. Yet, if the investments are based on the sustainability of the economic boom, there could be more shocks in the offing.

China’s real estate bust has left behind tens of millions of empty housing units. The historic glut of unoccupied property is colliding with China’s shrinking population, leaving cities stuck with homes they might never be able to fill. The country could have as many as 90 million empty housing units, enough homes for the entire population of Brazil.

Another measure of the unbalanced state of China’s economy is the size of the credit market bubble. According to Harvard professor Kenneth Rogoff, housing now constitutes a third of the Chinese economy and exposes it to massive risks. Chinese private sector credit has increased by around 100% of its GDP in the past decade.

The Future of China’s Economy and Global Impact

That rate of credit expansion is larger than that which preceded Japan’s lost economic decade in the 1990s and the 2008 US housing and subprime credit market bust. Yet another measure of the unbalanced state of the Chinese economy is the quantum of state-funded investment.

This accounts for as much as 42% of China’s GDP, approximately double the rate of the advanced economies. China now has a major problem of excess manufacturing capacity. With domestic household demand unable to fully absorb its manufacturing output, China has become dependent on foreign markets to take up its manufacturing surplus.

Without curtailing excess debt and investments, China could experience a Japanese-style lost economic decade. And that could have major consequences for the world economy given that China is the world’s second-largest. Moreover, it continues to remain the largest consumer of international commodities.

So, FIIs have a lot to ponder over before taking the ‘Buy China – Sell India’ trade too seriously. Nevertheless, such a strategy could work well in the near term as valuations of Indian stocks seem frothy. A deeper correction in Indian stock markets could be possible only if the money that FIIs pull out is higher than that which domestic investors pump in.

 

Hyundai Motor India Share to List Today After IPO Amid Complaints From Retail Investors

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Hyundai Motor India, the Indian arm of South Korea’s automotive giant, is poised to make its stock market debut this week following a historic Initial Public Offering (IPO), officials confirmed on Monday.

The company’s shares will begin trading on Tuesday, after successfully concluding last week’s $3.3 billion IPO, the largest ever in India’s market history. This debut surpasses the previous record held by the Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC), which raised $2.5 billion in its 2022 IPO.

The price band for Hyundai Motor India’s IPO has been set between ₹1,865 and ₹1,960 per share. As a pure offer-for-sale (OFS), all proceeds will go to the promoter company.

However, several retail applicants are upset over non-allocation of shares despite half of the category allocaton was applied.

India plays a crucial role in Hyundai’s global production strategy. In 2023 alone, the company produced 765,000 vehicles in the country. Hyundai Motor India stands as the second-largest carmaker in India, following Maruti Suzuki. The listing is expected to boost its local market competitiveness.

In recent years, Hyundai has ramped up its investments in India, acquiring General Motors’ manufacturing plant in Pune. The facility is undergoing modernization and is expected to reach a production capacity of over 200,000 units annually once operational in the latter half of 2025. This will bring Hyundai Motor India’s total production capacity to 1 million vehicles when combined with its Chennai plant.

Hyundai is also making strides in the electric vehicle (EV) market. By 2030, the company plans to install 485 EV charging stations across India and has partnered with Exide Energy to bolster its battery capabilities. The company will launch its first locally-produced electric SUV, the Creta EV, in 2025, followed by four more EV models by 2030 to meet India’s growing demand for electric vehicles.

Indian Shares Poised for Higher Opening as Key Earnings Reports Awaited

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Indian stock markets are expected to open slightly higher on Monday, with investor attention focused on earnings reports from major players like HDFC Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and Tech Mahindra.

As of 07:14 a.m. IST, the Gift Nifty stood at 24,927.5, indicating that the NSE Nifty 50 index may open marginally above its last close of 24,854.05 on Friday. Both the NSE Nifty 50 and S&P BSE Sensex had posted losses in the previous week, marking the third consecutive week of declines.

Analysts attributed the recent market downturn to sustained foreign outflows as investors shifted focus toward China, where stimulus measures and cheaper stock valuations are drawing attention. Additionally, the ongoing mixed corporate earnings season has added to market caution.

The reaction to HDFC Bank’s earnings, a key component of India’s benchmark indexes, will likely influence Monday’s trading. The private lender reported a higher-than-expected standalone net profit for the September quarter and plans to reduce its loan-to-deposit ratio over the next two to three years.

Meanwhile, Kotak Mahindra Bank may face selling pressure due to a sequential margin contraction and deterioration in asset quality for the second quarter. Tech Mahindra, which reported revenue growth over the weekend, will also be closely watched by market participants.

Foreign institutional investors have been net sellers of Indian equities for 15 consecutive sessions, offloading shares worth ₹54.86 billion ($652.7 million) on Friday. October is shaping up to be the worst month for the Nifty since September 2022, with the index down 3.7% so far.

Stocks to Watch:

  • JM Financial: The Reserve Bank of India has lifted restrictions on one of its units.
  • Tata Steel: The steelmaker signed a contract with Italy’s Tenova for an electric arc furnace at its Port Talbot plant in Wales.
  • JSW Steel: JSW’s joint venture with JFE Steel Corp announced a deal to acquire thyssenkrupp Electrical Steel India for $482.1 million.