Tag Archives: Decline

Indian Rupee Plunges to Record Low Against U.S. Dollar Amid Global Pressures

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The Indian rupee hit a record low against the U.S. dollar on Monday, driven by persistent demand for the dollar and continued outflows from Indian equities. The rupee dropped to an all-time low of 84.0725 against the U.S. dollar, surpassing the previous low of 84.07 recorded last Friday. This downward trend is attributed to foreign banks’ dollar bids and sustained outflows of over $8 billion from local equities in just 10 sessions.

For over two months, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) tried to keep the rupee stable around the 84 mark. However, the ongoing sell-off by foreign investors and weakness in Asian currencies—exacerbated by disappointment over China’s economic stimulus measures—further pressured the rupee. Asian currencies were down by 0.1% to 0.3%, while the U.S. dollar index hovered near its two-month peak at 103.

Local banks were seen offering dollars, while larger foreign banks dominated the demand. Market analysts predict the rupee to trade between 83.95 and 84.20 in the near term. Amit Pabari, managing director of FX advisory firm CR Forex, pointed out that RBI’s interventions, along with a potential reduction in equity outflows, could provide the rupee some relief and help it recover.

Market Impact and Geopolitical Concerns

Brent crude oil prices—currently at $78 per barrel but up 9% in October—are being closely monitored, as rising tensions in the Middle East could further disrupt global oil supplies and impact the rupee. The Indian stock market also felt the ripple effects, with the BSE Sensex plunging by 564.51 points to 72,835.27 and the NSE Nifty falling 153.35 points to 22,119.15 in early trading. The geopolitical uncertainty triggered broad sell-offs across sectors, affecting investor sentiment.

The situation highlights the importance of sound financial planning and risk management, especially in volatile global markets. Investors are advised to consider profit-booking and exercise caution amid ongoing market corrections.

Last time, in June 2018, the Indian currency hit an all-time closing low of 68.79 against the dollar. However, the current situation presents more serious challenges due to global economic uncertainties, especially regarding oil prices and geopolitical tensions.

Indian Rupee Hits Historic Low of Rs.84 Per Dollar Amid Crude Oil Surge and Geopolitical Tensions

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The Indian rupee recently reached a historic low, falling by 0.12 to trade at 84.09 against the US dollar. This decline is largely attributed to surging crude oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The US dollar’s strength, with the dollar index rising from $100.50 to $102.40, has also added pressure on the rupee.

Experts predict that ongoing volatility in the Middle East will keep oil prices elevated, weakening the rupee further in the short term. Brent crude has surged to $78.92 per barrel, up from nearly $69 on September 30, driven by fears of potential supply disruptions due to the conflict.

The rupee’s decline has also been fueled by significant outflows from foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), who sold shares worth ₹55,000 crore in the Indian stock market over the past nine days. Jateen Trivedi of LKP Securities noted that continued foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows have exacerbated the rupee’s weakness, with further declines possible.

Impact on Gold Prices and Global Markets

Gold prices have remained strong, trading above $2,635 on Comex, and increased by over ₹400 to ₹75,750 on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX). Rising jobless claims and persistent inflation, driven by higher crude oil prices, have supported the positive trend.

In India’s national capital, gold prices surged by ₹1,150 to ₹78,500 per 10 grams, driven by fresh buying from jewellers and global market trends. Increased local demand, along with global factors, contributed to the rise.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have also impacted global financial markets. Israeli stocks fell sharply, with the benchmark TA-35 Index dropping 3.1% before a slight recovery. The selloff extended to Egypt, as investors offloaded assets amid rising uncertainty.

Fed Reserve’s Interest Rate Outlook

Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve has signaled confidence in cutting interest rates, with Chairman Jerome Powell suggesting that policy adjustments are likely. The Fed’s move is influenced by inflation nearing its 2% target, leading to expectations of rate cuts designed to stimulate economic growth by lowering borrowing costs.

A reduction in US interest rates could have far-reaching effects on the global economy. A weaker dollar might make US exports more competitive and affect exchange rates globally, potentially encouraging investment in riskier assets and emerging markets. However, lingering global uncertainties or a US economic slowdown could dampen global growth prospects.

Over-Confidence Runs Ola Electric Dreams Down to Gutter, Stock Prices Plummet Further

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Ola Electric, once hailed as a trailblazer in India’s electric vehicle (EV) market, is now grappling with a host of challenges that threaten to derail its success. From a show-cause notice issued by the Central Consumer Protection Authority (CCPA) to a flurry of customer complaints and a sharp decline in stock prices, the company is under intense scrutiny.

On Tuesday, the company’s stock hit a record low of Rs 86 per share, a staggering 43% drop from its all-time high of Rs 157.40 just a few days prior. Though it recovered slightly, the decline is a far cry from its debut price of Rs 76, raising concerns about investor confidence in the Bhavish Aggarwal-led firm.

Ola Electric acknowledged receiving the show-cause notice from the CCPA in a stock exchange filing, stating, “The Central Consumer Protection Authority has provided a timeline of 15 days to the company to respond… We will respond within the given timeframe with supporting documents.”

The notice cited several potential violations of the Consumer Protection Act, 2019, and highlighted a litany of complaints from consumers, including manufacturing defects, unresolved issues despite servicing, partial or no refunds on cancellations, and inaccuracies in billing. Most notably, recurring battery problems have plagued Ola’s flagship electric scooters, undermining the brand’s reputation in a market already skeptical of EV reliability.

The National Consumer Helpline, managed by the Department of Consumer Affairs, has reportedly received over 10,000 complaints against Ola Electric since September 2023, signaling widespread dissatisfaction. Nidhi Khare, Secretary of the Department of Consumer Affairs, noted, “The CCPA is looking into a large number of complaints about Ola Electric, mainly related to service inefficiencies. We hope the company addresses these concerns promptly.”

Meanwhile, discontented customers have taken to social media to air their grievances. From faulty hardware to unresolved software issues, complaints about the company’s service centers and the poor quality of its e-scooters are mounting.

One frustrated user shared on X (formerly Twitter), “Even after the big announcement in service expansion, service centers are working the same. I delivered my scooter to Ola 3 weeks ago… Though it’s not properly fixed, OLA asked me to book RSA under my cost. I regret my decision to buy this scooter in 2022.” Another user criticized the design flaws, writing, “Ola scooters… are poorly engineered products. The OLA updated 2.0 platform has taken away any repairability… How is any of this GREEN?”

Ola Electric’s woes come at a critical juncture for India’s EV market. The company initially gained significant traction by positioning itself as a key player in the country’s green mobility push. Its e-scooters, which garnered attention for their sleek design and promise of high performance, were seen as a revolutionary step toward a more sustainable transportation system.

However, this momentum has been marred by quality control issues and complaints of inadequate after-sales service. The ongoing scrutiny from the CCPA and the mounting consumer dissatisfaction now threaten to overshadow the company’s potential.

Historically, rapid growth in the tech or EV space often brings operational challenges, particularly in emerging markets like India. Ola Electric’s struggles echo those of other global EV giants, including Tesla, which faced significant criticism early on for quality issues and delays in servicing. The difference lies in how companies respond to such setbacks. While Tesla was able to eventually overcome these challenges, it remains to be seen if Ola Electric can similarly recalibrate and rebuild consumer trust.

For now, the company is at a crossroads. With the stock price sliding, regulatory pressure mounting, and consumer confidence waning, Ola Electric faces an uphill battle to regain its footing in the competitive EV space. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether the company can address these challenges or if it risks skidding further off the road.

Sensex, Nifty tank lower, midcaps see sharper decline

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The Nifty hit a new low, marking its lowest point in over a month, as it closed down by 1.08 percent or 238.3 points at 21,817.5 on Tuesday.

Trading volumes in the NSE cash market were modest at Rs. 0.83 lakh crore. Despite the negative advance-decline ratio at 0.36:1, the midcap index experienced a sharper decline compared to the Nifty.

In Asia, stock performance was mixed on Tuesday following the Bank of Japan’s decision to raise its benchmark interest rate for the first time in 17 years, signaling the end of its long-standing negative rate policy. This move by the Bank of Japan marks the termination of the world’s final negative interest rate policy in the country.

Analysts pointed out a breach of the Nifty’s support level at 21,745 could potentially intensify the downward trend, while resistance might be encountered around 21,905. The next significant support levels to monitor are around 21,500 within the next week. Any upward movement towards 22,000 could present a selling opportunity, they advise.

After a long period of consolidation, the Nifty experienced a significant downward breakout on Tuesday, closing lower by 238 points. From the opening bell, the market displayed weakness throughout the session on Tuesday. It may further decline shortly, analysts said.

 

Rentals in IT-Centric Cities May Come Down in Next 3 Quarters: Assocham Report

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Amid huge layoffs by IT companies, IT-centric companies are witnessing pressure on rentals of homes in cities such as Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Chennai, Pune, Gurgaon and Noida, which may decline to the extent of 10 to 20 percent over the next three quarters, said Assocham.

The worst hit was Bengaluru where the fresh inflows of young professionals is declining over the period as they constitute a major chunk of rental home seekers, which is fast bringing down the rentals with many house owners in the India’s ‘Silicon Valley’ slashing their rates, the study found after survey of owners.

“Even in the existing rental deeds, the tenants are seeking better options and no hike in the monthly outgo, quoting the adverse industry outlook. With better options, the market is tilting in favour of the tenants, especially those paying above Rs 50,000 per month,” said the report.

Owing to increase in layoffs, the rentals in Bengaluru, Chennai and Hyderabad may come down by 10 to 12 percent while in Pune it may see 20% decline, said the report. In delhi NCR region, Gurgaon and Noida rentals will see a decline of up to 10-15 percent, the study said in its forecast.

Currently, the IT sector employes over 40 lakh people, who are mainly spread over the five cities studied for the report, said Assocham in its report. “The IT and other services like financials are among the sectors which pay well. Besides, the age profile of these employees is quite tempting for the marketers. They are good spenders and want good life,” noted the report.

While rentals are seeing a decline in individual homes, the aprtments and gated communities are seeing the need for more such secure homes for the techies who work as couples and go to office in odd hours. “These factors kept the markets for rentals pushing up, especially in gated and well-equipped housing complexes and societies in Bengaluru, Gurgaon, and Hyderabad,” said D.S. Rawat, Secretary General, Assocham.

Meanwhile, techies in Bangalore have approached the state IT minister for intervention to stop the layoffs in several companies of late to trim the expenses. They had asked the government to ensure better deal while laying off the staff or deferring the move by few more months instead of effecting it overnight making lives of families miserable.

India Business Confidence on Decline in Last 3 Months

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Indian business sentiment fell for the first time in three months in March 2016 as companies faced lower demand amid rising input prices on the back of the weak rupee, though political atmosphere remained stable after the release of JNU student leaders.

The MNI India Business Sentiment Indicator, a gauge of current sentiment among BSE-listed companies, fell to 62.7 in March from 63.5 in February. The decline in sentiment was led solely by manufacturing firms, offsetting last month’s rise in confidence. In contrast, sentiment among construction companies rose significantly and service sector companies were also more optimistic about overall business conditions.

In spite of March’s decline, confidence picked up a little over the first quarter of 2016 as a whole. After gradually declining throughout last year, the MNI India Business Sentiment Indicator averaged 62.7 in the three months to March, up slightly from 61.3 in the December quarter.

In contrast with last month, fewer companies reported an increase in both new orders and export orders, and they were also less bullish on future demand. Nevertheless, companies expanded production and the expectations measure for new orders remained elevated at 68.2.

While politics ruled high in February over the JNU row when JNUSU leader Kanhaiya Kumar’s arrest on sedition charges turned highly volatile with many student protests across the country, their release made the month of March more or less politicall stable.

Minus politics, many firms faced higher prices for their inputs, with the Input Prices Indicator increasing 5.7% on the month to the highest since July 2015. Consequently, companies raised the prices they charged and expected them to increase further in the coming three months in anticipation of higher prices for raw materials.

Another factor that added to companies’ outlays was the depreciation of the rupee. Companies lamented that its weakness made their imports more expensive. The indicator measuring the Effect of the Rupee Exchange Rate fell further into contraction to 46.3 from 48.4 in February, the lowest since June 2015.

Commenting on the latest survey, Chief Economist of MNI Indicators Philip Uglow said, "The decline in confidence in March was relatively modest and sentiment is still up from the recent trough in December. Importantly most key measures in the survey have stabilised and turned upwards in recent months following the trend decline that has been in place since September 2014."

"It looks increasingly likely that the RBI will cut official interest rates at its April meeting. Note, though, that input prices as well as prices charged have been trending higher recently, which will likely limit the extent of monetary easing."

[tags, india business climate, india investment climate, politics, unrest, indicators, rupee value, impact, india business confidence,jnu row impact,]

[category, finance]

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