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Notwithstanding last week’s erosion of Rs.1 lakh in market value, Indian stock markets are expected to navigate a crucial week ahead, with domestic and global economic indicators, especially Israeli-centric moves, taking center stage.
Key drivers for market movements include India’s Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for September, as well as updates on bank loan and deposit growth. Alongside these domestic cues, Q2 earnings results from major Indian companies and global developments, particularly from the US, China, and Japan, will heavily influence market sentiment.
The Q2 earnings season has officially begun, and several important reports are expected in the coming week. Analysts suggest these results could trigger sector-specific movements as investors digest the performances of companies across various industries.
In addition to corporate earnings, fluctuations in global crude oil prices, movements in the dollar index, and foreign institutional investor (FII) activity are likely to play a role in shaping the market’s trajectory. Over the past week, FIIs offloaded stocks worth Rs 28,000 crore, though domestic institutional investors (DIIs) stepped in with net purchases of over Rs 31,000 crore, providing some support to the market.
The market experienced consolidation last week after a sharp correction from its recent all-time highs in both the Nifty and Sensex. Although the week started with a decline, the indices recovered from lower levels by the end of the week.
Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart, said that technically, the Nifty index has found near-term support around the 24,750 level. He added, “To regain momentum, the Nifty must surpass resistance levels at 25,330 and 25,500. If it falls below 24,750, further selling pressure could push the index toward 24,440 and 24,100.”
Palka Arora Chopra, Director at Master Capital Services, pointed out that Bank Nifty is trading within a parallel channel and remains above its weekly 21-day exponential moving average (EMA), signaling a positive trend. “Support is seen at 50,600, with potential downside risk toward 50,000 if breached. On the upside, resistance is at 51,700, and a breakout could push the index to 52,200. The market may trade sideways in the near term, with a buy-on-dips strategy likely to be effective,” she noted.
On the macroeconomic front, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) held its key interest rates steady last week, shifting its stance to “neutral.” This shift has raised expectations for possible rate cuts as early as December. The central bank maintained its GDP growth forecast for FY25 at 7.2 percent, while keeping the CPI inflation target unchanged at 4.5 percent.
With a mix of corporate earnings and significant economic data on the horizon, investors will be closely monitoring market signals to gauge the near-term outlook.
