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As per the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris is leading Republican Donald Trump by a narrow margin of 46% to 43% in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, reflecting the sentiments of voters as the November 5, 2024 vote is nearing.
The poll reveals that voters consider the economy as the top issue facing the country. Within this context, the cost of living was identified as the most important economic concern, with 70% of respondents considering it a key issue while other economic issues like the job market, taxes, or improving personal finances received significantly less attention.
When it comes to addressing these economic issues, voters’ opinions diverge. Donald Trump was seen as the preferred candidate for addressing the cost of living, with 44% of respondents supporting his approach compared to 38% for Kamala Harris. However, when it comes to addressing the gap between wealthy and average Americans, Harris was favored by a margin of 42% to 35%.
The poll also touched on the contentious issue of immigration, which is currently at its highest level in America in over a century. Some 53% of voters in the poll agreed with the statement that immigrants who are in the country illegally are a danger to public safety, compared to 41% who disagreed. This shows that Trump’s claims about immigrants being prone to crime might have swayed some voters, despite these assertions being largely discredited by academics and think tanks.
State-by-State Results
In terms of trust, voters favoured Kamala Harris more than Donald Trump. The poll found that 55% of respondents agreed that Harris was mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges, compared to 46% who held the same view about Trump. This could be a significant factor in the election, as voters may prioritize a candidate’s mental sharpness when making their decision.
The poll, which had a margin of error of about 3 percentage points, also highlighted the importance of state-by-state results in determining the winner of the election. The Electoral College’s state-by-state results are crucial, with seven battleground states likely to be decisive. Polls have shown Harris and Trump are neck-and-neck in those battleground states, with many results within the margins of error.
Historically, close races like this one have been decided by a few key factors, including the candidates’ performance in debates, their ability to mobilize their base, and their success in swaying undecided voters.
In 2000, George W. Bush and Al Gore were locked in a tight race that was ultimately decided by a few hundred votes in Florida. Similarly, in 2016, Donald Trump’s victory was secured by narrow margins in key swing states. As the 2024 election approaches, both Harris and Trump will need to focus their efforts on these crucial areas if they hope to secure victory.
