Summary:
Democrats are heavily favoured to capture the US House of Representatives in the November 3 midterm elections, potentially giving them the power to intensify scrutiny of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, trade policies and immigration restrictions affecting India and Indian professionals.
Prediction market Kalshi gave Democrats a 90 per cent chance of winning the House and a 62 per cent chance of capturing the Senate, according to prices published on Monday. The platform put the probability of Democrats winning both chambers at 61 per cent, while a divided Congress, with Democrats controlling the House and Republicans retaining the Senate, had a 30 per cent chance.
The Silver Bulletin’s generic congressional ballot average, updated on Monday, showed Democrats leading Republicans by 8.8 percentage points. The measure asks voters which party they would support in congressional elections.
“Democrats’ surge in the polls that started in early September still hasn’t stopped,” the Silver Bulletin said.
President Donald Trump’s approval ratings offer Republicans little reassurance. A CBS News/YouGov poll conducted from September 30 to October 2 found that 39 per cent of Americans approved of his job performance, while 61 per cent disapproved. On inflation, approval stood at 29 per cent, against 71 per cent who disapproved.
The Senate race remains more uncertain. The Cook Political Report rates seven contests as toss-ups: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. Republicans currently hold six of those seats.
How a Democratic House could challenge Trump’s India agenda
A Democratic majority would give the party control of House committees, subpoena powers and the ability to investigate the administration’s decisions. US media reports have said House Democrats are preparing “a vast oversight agenda” covering Trump, his family and his administration.
For India, the implications would be significant across three areas: tariffs, energy trade and skilled immigration. However, congressional scrutiny would not automatically translate into policy reversals.
Trump has imposed many tariffs through executive action. A Democratic-controlled House could summon administration officials, demand documents, conduct hearings and force votes on trade measures. Overturning those policies would be more difficult if the Senate remained under Republican control or Trump used his veto power.
The same scrutiny could extend to the Graham Act tariffs targeting major buyers of Russian energy, which could take effect from October 18. The legislation requires the administration to send Congress a written justification at least 10 days before imposing the duties. A Democratic-led House could use that requirement to examine the administration’s rationale and its potential consequences for countries such as India.
Any India-US trade agreement requiring congressional legislation could also face closer scrutiny from a House controlled by Democrats.
London-based think tank Chatham House has argued that the opposition’s strongest leverage could come through federal spending and budget negotiations.
The US debt limit is expected to be reached by mid-2027. Chatham House senior research fellow Max Yoeli wrote last month that Democratic control of the House alone would prevent Republicans from using the budget reconciliation process to raise the debt limit without Democratic support.
However, Yoeli cautioned that opposition to Trump’s foreign policy “will be more about optics than hard constraints”, given Democrats’ inability to override presidential vetoes without sufficient congressional votes.
H-1B restrictions put Indian professionals in focus
Immigration policy presents another potential flashpoint for India-US relations.
The $100,000 fee on new H-1B petitions has drawn particular concern because Indian nationals have historically accounted for the largest share of beneficiaries under the skilled-worker visa programme.
The fee is already facing a legal challenge. A federal judge in California blocked its enforcement on September 30, and the Trump administration has appealed to the Ninth Circuit.
A Democratic House could hold hearings on the fee’s impact on technology companies, employers and foreign professionals. Lawmakers could also seek to attach conditions to spending legislation, although the outcome would depend on congressional negotiations and the legal proceedings.
The election also has implications for Indian-American representation in Congress. Four Democratic representatives seeking re-election — Ro Khanna, Ami Bera, Pramila Jayapal and Suhas Subramanyam — are contesting seats rated safe for their party.
The current House has six Indian-American members. Raja Krishnamoorthi gave up his House seat to run for the Senate but lost the Illinois primary, while Shri Thanedar lost his Michigan primary in August.
The House has 435 voting members, and a party needs 218 seats for a majority. All House seats and 35 Senate seats will be contested on November 3.
A Democratic victory in the House would increase political scrutiny of Trump’s India-related policies, particularly tariffs, energy trade and skilled immigration. Whether that scrutiny produces substantive changes would depend on the Senate balance, presidential veto powers, court decisions and the administration’s willingness to negotiate.