When Argentina releases its third-quarter GDP figures on Dec. 16, a reading even slightly below zero would put the country in a technical recession. Economists surveyed by the central bank now expect a much larger decline: 2.3% from the previous quarter, compared with 0.9% in the preceding survey. The size of the drop, and whether household spending or business investment drove it, will help show how much ground the economy needs to recover.
Argentina’s national statistics agency, INDEC, reported that seasonally adjusted GDP fell 0.6% in the second quarter. A second consecutive quarterly decline would meet the usual definition of a technical recession. Output was still 2.0% higher than a year earlier in the second quarter. The two figures capture different periods: the quarterly comparison measures recent momentum, while the annual comparison shows where output stands relative to 2025.
The central bank published the survey on Nov. 5 after collecting responses from 45 consultancies, research centers and financial institutions. Those forecasters also expect GDP to rise 2.0% in the fourth quarter. Even if that rebound materializes, it would leave output slightly below its second-quarter level if the estimated third-quarter drop holds. The survey puts full-year growth at 0.7%, down from 1.5% in the previous round.
The weakening was already visible in July, when INDEC’s monthly economic activity index fell 2.8% from June. It rose just 0.1% in August, against a 1.5% median forecast in a Bloomberg survey, and was 1.7% below its level a year earlier. Bloomberg Economics’ Jimena Zúñiga said in October that the recovery in manufacturing and construction was “not nearly compelling enough to support the hope of avoiding technical recession.”
September data offer first test
INDEC will publish its economy-wide September activity estimate on Nov. 24. Individual sectors have already reported some gains. Construction activity rose 7.8% from August, seasonally adjusted, and was 5.1% higher than a year earlier. Factory output rose 0.7% on the month but remained 1.8% below September 2025. A stronger September could soften the quarterly decline. The November release will show whether the gains reached enough sectors to offset the weakness earlier in the quarter.
The central bank offered a more upbeat reading in its third-quarter monetary policy presentation. It attributed part of July’s weakness to temporary disruptions in natural gas supply to industrial users as cold weather raised household demand. It said “cyclical sectors may have begun to recover” in September and pointed to strength in export-oriented industries such as mining, agriculture and fishing. The December GDP breakdown will show how much those industries offset weakness elsewhere.
Household spending presents a tougher test. INDEC said wages rose 1.3% in September, below that month’s 1.9% inflation rate. Wages in the formal private sector rose 1.9%, while pay in the unregistered private sector fell 0.8%. Consumer prices then rose 2.2% in October. For President Javier Milei’s government, the GDP report’s private consumption figures will help show how households responded as purchasing power came under pressure.
The two dates answer different questions. The Nov. 24 activity report will show whether the economy was picking up speed as the quarter ended. The Dec. 16 release will measure output across the full quarter and show how consumption, investment and trade contributed. A late pickup could leave Argentina better positioned for the fourth quarter even if the three months through September mark a second straight contraction.
Shelton Rozario 
Sridhar P